Posted on 01/21/2006 12:07:57 PM PST by Tailgunner Joe
MOSCOW -- Occasionally, we all get wrong ideas about ourselves. A middle-aged person starts dressing like Leonardo di Caprio, a pizza deliveryman begins emulating "The Godfather," a school teacher turns herself into a Gestapo interrogator. Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided he was Napoleon. Two centuries ago the French emperor attempted an economic blockade of archenemy England. In January 2006, Putin tried the same on Eastern Europe.
Back in the '50s, when the world economy was making the big transition from coal to oil and gas, journalists started referring to natural gas as industry's "blue blood." Assuming the metaphor still stands, in January the blood arteries of Eastern Europe became clogged.
Russia is the major supplier of natural gas to several countries in the area, and around New Year's Eve Putin decided to let Europeans know who's boss. Basically, the whole crisis was about Ukraine.
Russian hardcore nationalists like Putin still take the collapse of the Soviet empire as a personal tragedy. Unable to reclaim it militarily, they have proclaimed a Russian version of the Monroe Doctrine, saying that every newly independent nation that was part of the Soviet Union lies within the sphere of "special" Russian interests.
Since the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine brought to power a pro-Western president, Viktor Yushchenko, the Kremlin has been busy undermining the new Ukrainian administration.
With the parliamentary elections in Ukraine just weeks away, Putin decided to weigh in: Russia declared that Ukraine would have to pay four times more for contracted gas it was buying from a Russian monopoly.
"Take it or leave it," the Kremlin said. When the Ukrainians refused to foot the bill, delivery was stopped.
Enraged by the energy crisis imposed on them by a neighbor in the middle of winter, the Ukrainians started stealing Russian gas from a pipeline taking it to Central Europe through their territory. Absolutely livid, the Kremlin stopped all the flow altogether. European economy shuddered, and a very angry Europe made Putin back off.
There were no winners in the gas crisis, but Russia was the biggest loser. Putin shot himself in the foot, proving once more that his reputation as a pragmatic moderate is greatly exaggerated.
Flexing his muscles in Ukraine, he planned to bring the pro-Russian party to power, but instead infuriated the majority of Ukrainian voters, and now the new Ukrainian parliament is set to be more solidly anti-Moscow than ever.
Russia's reputation worldwide has suffered, too. Blackmail is not an instrument preferred by the global economy these days, and Russia has lost its credibility as a business partner.
Oil and gas are the only commodities keeping the Russian economy afloat. The budget surplus Putin keeps bragging about originates solely in soaring fuel prices. But after the recent folly, foreign oil and gas consumers will start looking for the goodies elsewhere. Of course, Europe will not be able to find an alternative to Russian natural gas overnight. Still, there are other oil and gas producers besides Russia.
Since the early 1990s, when the countries of the Caspian Sea basin discovered new oil and gas fields on their terrain, the building of new pipelines and delivering Caspian energy to Western consumers has been one of the key issues in international diplomacy. Russia insisted that oil and gas transit its southern areas; skeptics in the West said that would give Moscow too much leverage.
After much fighting under the carpet, a Western oil consortium bypassed Russia, building a new pipeline through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. After the recent gas crisis in Ukraine, that looks like the wisest geo-strategic decision the West has made in continental Eurasia in years, and its architects must congratulate themselves on their foresight.
When and if any new pipeline comes into question, Russia's territory will be every investor's last choice.
Putin's grand blackmail will cost Russia. If the nation's oil and gas revenues subside -- and in the near future they very likely will as a result of Putin's reckless steering -- Russia will run short of cash again and will be unable to pay for Turkish leather jackets, Indian drugs and Chinese cell phones. For that to happen, the drop in energy sales need not be apocalyptic; the Russian economy is so fragile that a mere 10 percent setback could probably cripple it.
Obviously, Putin did not understand all this when he started the rattling. It's a shame, because even children of kindergarten age know the golden safety rule: "One does not mess with gas taps."
That maxim was burned into my brain by nursery school.
In kindergarten, I learned not to mess around with wage and price controls.
"Putin's grand blackmail will cost Russia. If the nation's oil and gas revenues subside -- and in the near future they very likely will as a result of Putin's reckless steering -- Russia will run short of cash again and will be unable to pay for Turkish leather jackets, Indian drugs and Chinese cell phones. For that to happen, the drop in energy sales need not be apocalyptic; the Russian economy is so fragile that a mere 10 percent setback could probably cripple it. "
The heat belt in the US is having a very mild spring - inventories of oil are up and prices should plummet unless Putie FABRICATES an incident to strike fear in supplies - say something like getting his lapog in Belorus to provide Iran with WMD technology
OOPS - he already did that!!
I hear you!
I still remember the teacher admonishing us about using +P ammo in Saturday Night Specials ;'}
Give Putin a bottle of Turkish Roki. And talk sense into him. Actually, he needs to talk with the elected leaders of the countries around him. It's cold and shitty around Moscow in the winter. A good time to visit other places and vacation while getting things together. He needs to. He's been running loose and irritating people without any particular purpose. Time to get away from Moscow and into a warmer climate where the sun actually shines half a day.
Fortunately Putin has made it plain he will surrender power when his term is up.
With luck his successor will be a more friendly and more capitalist neighbor.
But I won't hold my breath.
The Russians on the whole don't seem to be ready for freedom
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