I’d say “arm-chair” quarterbacking implies Ledeen thinks he has all the answers. He’s got more than a few but I believe he realizes solving the Iran problem is going to be a big effort and a team effort of which he is an important member. From his “arm chair” he knows that only a few dissidents are going to meet him there yet he's still asking the U.S. government meet Iranian dissidents more than half way. This makes him an essential member of the team, not an “arm chair quarterback”.
In this effort, known details are important but so are unknowns. Totalitarian regimes like Iran’s imprison, torture and execute dissidents so great care should be taken when approaching and or promoting any Iranian dissident. The safe bet in my opinion is to rally behind a mutually beneficial model for the future of Iran. The more detailed the model the dissidents have come up with, the more Americans have to work with in terms of refining and supporting the model. There are ways to help create that model I'll cover later. What is important to note is that it is not essential that the political splits, inherent in any Diaspora community and particularly prominent in the Iranian Diaspora, come together before the U.S. lends a hand to their effort to bring about change. U.S. support should be tied directly to the production of material that facilitates positive change in Iran. In fact the current DOS logic that the political splits in the Iranian opposition movements is a bad thing, is wrong. Competent debate between opponents of the Iranian regime will indeed be fuel for the engine that produces the material to facilitate positive change in Iran. The Civil Rights Movement here in the United States operated this way. The factions challenged one another and gave restive people essential choices that represented an unofficial democracy outside of the United States Government but within the Civil Rights Movement. It is in this kind of environment where ideas can develop, be challenged and blossom or die natural deaths. But the first step is to have faith in democratic diplomacy with Iranians, including and most importantly Iranian opposition leaders. The diplomatic ball is in Iranian official’s court right now because Iranian officials know exactly what they have to do to normalize relations with the United States yet they refuse to do it. Iranian opposition groups are not so lucky. They do not know what they have to do to take their opposition to tyranny to the next level, where it might find success.
The actions I recommend are not detailed per say but if carried out would provide an environment in which the important details could be created. I recommend the U.S. Congress form a new committee or employ an existing one to: 1. Overtly approach all Iranian opposition groups and challenge them to produce their grievances, platform and methodology. 2. Subsequently the committee should analyze these products, not in secret but with the assistance of varied experts, and reply with multiple suggestions and a timeline to achieve action items. Iterating these two steps will develop an Iranian opposition that has the capacity to facilitate a democratic Iran, not naively destabilize Iran and force the global economy into a dive as the Iranian Revolution of 1979 did. Over time and the conscious dissemination of the products the groups create will generate legitimate political pressure, and I believe internationally approved pressure, that will either force the Iranian regime to change or implode. I think Ledeen’s correct, there is no reason to assume this process would take a long time. So what are we waiting for?
Thanks for the detailed reply. I know that I don't have all the pieces of the puzzle on the table in front of me. I do hope that our leadership does and acts. Some of the obvious things would be visible even to a casual observer - e.g. a VOA type operation aimed at the Iranian people.