Posted on 01/17/2006 7:26:57 AM PST by SirLinksalot
January 17, 2006
Condi Says She’s Not Running. Believe It.
By Jay Cost
Earlier this week the Associated Press reported that Condoleeza Rice once again said that she is not seeking the presidency. Of course, the fact that she has to consistently deny that she is seeking the presidency indicates that people do not really believe her denials. Perhaps it is because they do not want to believe them. Rice always polls very well among Republican primary voters. And many think that she would be a safe bet in 2008. She is likeable, qualified and capable of securing African-American voters (so the conventional wisdom goes). But Condi keeps saying no, she will not run.
The question: should people believe her?
The answer: definitely. Condoleeza Rice will not seek the presidency in 2008. The reason for this is that the position of Secretary of State is no longer one from which the presidency can reasonably be sought. The fact that Rice took that job – and obviously has no intention of leaving it – indicates that she has no interest in the presidency.
A long time ago, State was almost a prerequisite for the White House. Six of our first fifteen presidents – Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren and James Buchanan – served as Secretary of State prior to election to the White House. What is more, there is a long list of presidential candidates who served in the same capacity, either before or (mostly) after their White House run – notably Henry Clay, John Calhoun, William Jennings Bryan, Charles Evans Hughes and Alexander Haig. That office remains one of the preeminent political positions in this country. Of this there is no doubt.
However, it has not been a step to the presidency in 150 years. Zero of our last twenty-seven presidents have been Secretary of State. And the number of secretaries-turned-candidates has also been few and far between. Since Buchanan, only one person, James G. Blaine, has received a presidential nomination after having served as Secretary of State. The rest, like Bryan and Hughes, sought the presidency and lost – and were subsequently honored by a victorious president of their party with the post. This seems counterintuitive. After all, this position has very frequently been filled by individuals of immense talent and intelligence. Why has the American public not made use of this resource? The answer has to do with matters of politics, rather than matters of governance.
First, the number of prominent political positions, i.e. those from which an ambitious politician could stage a presidential campaign, have increased dramatically since the early days of the Republic. Governorships are now much more prominent on a national level. So, also, are seats in the Senate. These positions offer one a better opportunity for the kind of political posturing necessary to secure a major party nomination. Secretaries of State, on the other hand, must always be measured and reserved in their remarks. They are, after all, the nation’s chief diplomats.
Second, it is no coincidence that only three secretaries of State – Van Buren, Buchanan and Blaine – have received a presidential nomination since it was no longer in the hands of a party’s congressional caucus. Between roughly 1828 and 1960, party nominees were chosen largely by state party bosses at nominating conventions. It was unlikely that state bosses were thinking about the nation’s top diplomat when considering whom to nominate. Congressional caucuses, which nominated candidates in the early years of the Republic and which were much more connected to the happenings of the federal government, were more impressed by secretaries of State.
The rise of the political primary as a replacement for the boss-controlled nominating convention has not changed the secretary’s position vis-à-vis the presidency, either. In fact, it has worsened it. The top job at State is, to say the least, a labor-intensive one. The Secretary is required to put in much more time than, say, a governor or a senator, who can safely dedicate lots of time to campaigning. But the Secretary of State is always and exclusively at the service of the President. There is no time for glad-handing at a cookout in Iowa or fishing with the chair of the Manchester, NH Republican Party. There is also no time for the fundraising. Major party presidential nominees are no longer chosen by congressional caucus or by party bosses at a convention. They are now chosen by the people, who require long and expensive campaigns that begin months-to-years prior to the actual date of voting. No Secretary of State has time for that kind of commitment. This is probably why the post has most recently been held by individuals who seem to be at the end of their political careers: Colin Powell, Madeline Albright, Warren Christopher, Lawrence Eagleburger, James Baker, George Schultz, etc.
So, while this job used to be one from which candidates would emerge, it is now no longer so. This is important for understanding Condoleeza Rice. If she wanted to be President in 2009, she would not be at State today. She would have secured for herself some other position of political prominence. State is perhaps the only position that is both maximally prominent and minimally effective for attaining the presidency. Why would she be there if she was interested in the White House?
If she is not interested in the presidency, she will not be running for the presidency. People who run for the White House have wanted to be President for a very long time. Nobody is drafted for that position, not anymore and not in the true sense of the word “draft”. Putting aside all the campaign rhetoric about duty or experience to justify candidacies, the bottom line is that people who actually run are people who are hungry for the office and who have worked for a long time to place themselves in a position from which they could attain it. Condi is clearly not such a person.
It is interesting to note, by way of conclusion, that Rice responded to the question about the 2008 race while she was literally on her way out the door to Africa. That should tell you all you need to know. Compare Rice to the other 2008 candidates – McCain, Romney, Allen, Clinton, etc. The latter are today thinking about and preparing for their campaigns. Condoleeza Rice is today thinking about US-Liberian relations. What else do you need to know? Condi will not run in 2008.
Jay Cost, creator of the Horse Race Blog, is a doctoral candidate of political science at the University of Chicago
You threaten me one more time, and you'll be out of here.
I knew a guy from the old MSNBC Opinion boards who worked for Hewlett-Packard's office in San Diego. He'd clock in at work in the morning, spend all day on the computer, and at 5:00 west coast time every weekday, he'd suddenly disappear.
Next Question:
If President Bush had vetoed CFR, how and what would that have affected the economy, and the country?
They aren't gone.rdb3 was posting this morning. Posts almost everyday.
rdb3 not only posts regularly, but he called in to the Tony Snow Show the other day, and we all heard him on the Fox feed. A really great guy!
Newsweek magazine is expected to have an explosive article showing Saddam had everything to do with 9/11. You're argument is tantamount to saying the thug who loaned his car as the getaway car in a bank heist is not culpable of any crime. Your argument also suggests that even the Saudi's would be left off the hook, even though it has been proven they were funding terrorist groups worldwide too.
Beyond that, your argument over "it was all about oil" comes straight out of the leftist playbook, it's laughable.
However the post I replied to is correct in that there are many good freepers missing.
Yes, of course.
rdb3 and mhking still post here frequently.
Speaking for myself. I wish you would go, I don't see you as benefiting any conversation here. You insult us, threaten us and constantly treat us as inferior. Please go.
SHORT. Best of luck, but please return and we can continue debate another day.
What's appalling is you spent your entire afternoon insulting some, and threatening or belittling others.
If you ever decide to leave on your own terms for good, you won't be missed around here.
You brought all that on yourself. Go home and cry in wifey-poo's arms.
And least we forget, we once had the civilian employee who used to work for the Pentagon and spent his time on FR trashing the President. Genius that he was, he posted way too much identifying information on his website.
I wonder if he put down internet skills on his resume?
But you said:
We who can't teach, publish books, and don't purchase and drive our manhood...menhood...manhoods...
I guess you haven't even managed to do that............LOL.........busted!
Ah, no, it does not.
Main Entry: pub·lish
Pronunciation: 'p&-blish
Function: verb
Etymology: Middle English, modification of Middle French publier, from Latin publicare, from publicus public
transitive senses
1 a : to make generally known b : to make public announcement of
2 a : to disseminate to the public b : to produce or release for distribution; specifically : PRINT 2c c : to issue the work of (an author)
intransitive senses
1 : to put out an edition
2 : to have one's work accepted for publication
- pub·lish·able /-bli-sh&-b&l/ adjective
I'm just checking back in and see that someone who has lamented the lack of intellectual discussion on FR does not know the meaning of the word publish. ROFL!
Over there, you could pretty much gather where everyone was posting from, even if you didn't explicitly ask for that information, because that board showed everyone's IP addresses, until web anonymizers became all the rage.
That's an old whine stated by almost every person who can't hold their own here.
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