Posted on 01/17/2006 7:26:57 AM PST by SirLinksalot
January 17, 2006
Condi Says She’s Not Running. Believe It.
By Jay Cost
Earlier this week the Associated Press reported that Condoleeza Rice once again said that she is not seeking the presidency. Of course, the fact that she has to consistently deny that she is seeking the presidency indicates that people do not really believe her denials. Perhaps it is because they do not want to believe them. Rice always polls very well among Republican primary voters. And many think that she would be a safe bet in 2008. She is likeable, qualified and capable of securing African-American voters (so the conventional wisdom goes). But Condi keeps saying no, she will not run.
The question: should people believe her?
The answer: definitely. Condoleeza Rice will not seek the presidency in 2008. The reason for this is that the position of Secretary of State is no longer one from which the presidency can reasonably be sought. The fact that Rice took that job – and obviously has no intention of leaving it – indicates that she has no interest in the presidency.
A long time ago, State was almost a prerequisite for the White House. Six of our first fifteen presidents – Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren and James Buchanan – served as Secretary of State prior to election to the White House. What is more, there is a long list of presidential candidates who served in the same capacity, either before or (mostly) after their White House run – notably Henry Clay, John Calhoun, William Jennings Bryan, Charles Evans Hughes and Alexander Haig. That office remains one of the preeminent political positions in this country. Of this there is no doubt.
However, it has not been a step to the presidency in 150 years. Zero of our last twenty-seven presidents have been Secretary of State. And the number of secretaries-turned-candidates has also been few and far between. Since Buchanan, only one person, James G. Blaine, has received a presidential nomination after having served as Secretary of State. The rest, like Bryan and Hughes, sought the presidency and lost – and were subsequently honored by a victorious president of their party with the post. This seems counterintuitive. After all, this position has very frequently been filled by individuals of immense talent and intelligence. Why has the American public not made use of this resource? The answer has to do with matters of politics, rather than matters of governance.
First, the number of prominent political positions, i.e. those from which an ambitious politician could stage a presidential campaign, have increased dramatically since the early days of the Republic. Governorships are now much more prominent on a national level. So, also, are seats in the Senate. These positions offer one a better opportunity for the kind of political posturing necessary to secure a major party nomination. Secretaries of State, on the other hand, must always be measured and reserved in their remarks. They are, after all, the nation’s chief diplomats.
Second, it is no coincidence that only three secretaries of State – Van Buren, Buchanan and Blaine – have received a presidential nomination since it was no longer in the hands of a party’s congressional caucus. Between roughly 1828 and 1960, party nominees were chosen largely by state party bosses at nominating conventions. It was unlikely that state bosses were thinking about the nation’s top diplomat when considering whom to nominate. Congressional caucuses, which nominated candidates in the early years of the Republic and which were much more connected to the happenings of the federal government, were more impressed by secretaries of State.
The rise of the political primary as a replacement for the boss-controlled nominating convention has not changed the secretary’s position vis-à-vis the presidency, either. In fact, it has worsened it. The top job at State is, to say the least, a labor-intensive one. The Secretary is required to put in much more time than, say, a governor or a senator, who can safely dedicate lots of time to campaigning. But the Secretary of State is always and exclusively at the service of the President. There is no time for glad-handing at a cookout in Iowa or fishing with the chair of the Manchester, NH Republican Party. There is also no time for the fundraising. Major party presidential nominees are no longer chosen by congressional caucus or by party bosses at a convention. They are now chosen by the people, who require long and expensive campaigns that begin months-to-years prior to the actual date of voting. No Secretary of State has time for that kind of commitment. This is probably why the post has most recently been held by individuals who seem to be at the end of their political careers: Colin Powell, Madeline Albright, Warren Christopher, Lawrence Eagleburger, James Baker, George Schultz, etc.
So, while this job used to be one from which candidates would emerge, it is now no longer so. This is important for understanding Condoleeza Rice. If she wanted to be President in 2009, she would not be at State today. She would have secured for herself some other position of political prominence. State is perhaps the only position that is both maximally prominent and minimally effective for attaining the presidency. Why would she be there if she was interested in the White House?
If she is not interested in the presidency, she will not be running for the presidency. People who run for the White House have wanted to be President for a very long time. Nobody is drafted for that position, not anymore and not in the true sense of the word “draft”. Putting aside all the campaign rhetoric about duty or experience to justify candidacies, the bottom line is that people who actually run are people who are hungry for the office and who have worked for a long time to place themselves in a position from which they could attain it. Condi is clearly not such a person.
It is interesting to note, by way of conclusion, that Rice responded to the question about the 2008 race while she was literally on her way out the door to Africa. That should tell you all you need to know. Compare Rice to the other 2008 candidates – McCain, Romney, Allen, Clinton, etc. The latter are today thinking about and preparing for their campaigns. Condoleeza Rice is today thinking about US-Liberian relations. What else do you need to know? Condi will not run in 2008.
Jay Cost, creator of the Horse Race Blog, is a doctoral candidate of political science at the University of Chicago
Let me put it this way...
I was turned on to politics by Reagan, read all the political journals and argued with lefties and paid attention to the lies of the media with disgust. When the Wall came down and Communism failed, I celebrated with everyone else.
In the years since, it's become obvious that the Golden Rule determines political races and the national and state level, and the leftists are entrenched here at our local level.
Now, I can pretend that I can make a difference and put a whole lot of energy into fighting this horrendously powerful current, or concentrate on my new teaching position, on my books I now have contracted to write, and on my martial arts (I'm still only approaching my black belt in isshinryu karate).
Let's see...fight a hopeless battle in a corrupted and deteriorating system, or enjoy my life.
The decision is easy. I quit.
I send Alan Keyes money, and I won't support the Libertarian Party of North Carolina because they are pro-abortion.
RMFP
Thank you for the straight answer.
Good luck with the books and the black belt! Not to mention the classes.
Such is life.
Wow, optimist are you?
Hey, do what you want... vote for a candidate who has no prayer of winning, or don't vote at all. Just leave it up to the rest of the country to choose our next Commander in Chief, and hope for the best outcome. I would guess that's how people who don't vote view elections. I wouldn't know since I've voted in every election since I turned 18 (ages ago)...
He does not speak for NC.
I don't think we should put a whole lot of energy into it at this point. The most likely outcome, frankly, is that she will continue to be the "real" President (a position she currently shares with Cheney), and let some figurehead who wants to "be the President" take all the crap that comes along with the official title. She already has as much power as any President in my lifetime. Why put up with all the crap of campaigning, making endless simple-minded speeches at fundraising dinners, dodging flying mud, etc., when you can have all the important stuff without that? She's a smart lady, and certainly smart enough to do that calculation.
The serious decision-time will come a bit further down the road, if the Democrats have finally managed to scrounge up a viable candidate, the early announced Republican candidates are shaky, and there appears to be a real risk of a Democratic White House. At that point, I believe she would do what needs to be done, even if it was determined that what's needed is for her to run, either for President, or (more likely) for VP. If her amazing parents were still alive, I think they'd encourage her to do that, and I think she'll have that in mind when making any big decisions.
My guns are non-existent and hidden.
Taxes are killing me, but I'm learning how to shelter my assets with the best of them (and those same shelters will always remain because the people who raise taxes use them, too).
Osama is a symbol for the entire botched WOT.
We're already selling out to the Chinese, just so long as they continue to buy our intermediate debt instruments.
And with 1/5 of my home state Mexican (according to figures recently established by a demographer friend of mine over at Duke), that freeway is already open.
I quit. The only difference between any of them is that Hillary offends me digestively, while the others are simply puppetry designed to make evangelicals feel warm and fuzzy.
I'm color-blind, like my father.
Are you serious? First of all not voting means you cannot complain for the next four years...LOL.
Second, even worse...Alan Keyes...Why?
Actually, most of North Carolina is turning Democratic, if the last elections are any indication. ALL the Republican candidates lost in our couunty- and city-wide races, even in my former precinct, which is presently 4-1 Republican.
And, yes, I voted as a loyal Republican, not that it did any good. We had some good candidates, too.
I always like the bumper sticker "you don't vote so you can't complain," as if that was in the Constitution.
Please read my posts (though I know there's lots of them, now). I support Alan Keyes because I like listening to him talk--no other reason. The Mrs. supports him because he is very, very old-fashioned Catholic.
Trust me. I like Condi a lot, but I cannot believe that this conservative website with all of us conservatives on here are seriously wanting her to run with such a pro choice stance that she has. I thought one of the biggest issues we have is pro-life.
Exactly what the RATs want to see happening. If we don't stay unified, this country is headed for BIG trouble down the road. At the very least, consider what a liberal Commander in Chief would do to our troops' morale...
I'm sorry, I never defined the Golden Rule. It's: "He who has the gold, makes the rules."
I'm sorry.
Please see my #136
Well, this post proves you don't know what you're talking about.
Oh, FGS, the only people who say that are the 1 percenters.
They've been saying it as long as you and I have been here - and they are virtually NEVER right.
They just say it to make themselves relevant.
In reading your bio, the degree that is the most worthwhile that you earned {math} was the only one you think was a waste of time. As an arrogant phd in european history you are earning your living at a liberal university talking down to skulls full of mush. It doesn't surprise me, too tough in the real world. Thanks to your father for his service to our Country. You are certainly entitled to your opinions, regardless of how idiotic that they are.
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