I only watch the Oscars when one of the movies I liked is nominated for one or the major ones or a good number. So I was definitely watching the year the ROTK swept :). Defnitely not when I can be sure that Im not going to be watching a 4 hour DNC commerical like in 2003. I go to the theater a lot (I'm young), and none of the movies I see or like are ever nominated for something (Passion?). It's always some boring artsy film no one normal has heard of and goes to see or some clear agenda pushing movie (BM, Millionare Dollar Baby) .
I used to like seeing everybody dressed up and seeing what people are wearing, but knowing now that these people have no brains, nothing worthwhile to say (limo lib hacks), are a bunch of greedy self important narcisstic people who think they should get everything handed to them because they are "somebody" (dont get me started on swag parties and all the freebies celebs get for being somebody), and the self-congradulating nature of the oscars has gotten me to too disgusted to the point where I want no knowledge whatsoever of celebrities and nothing to do with the People magazine celebrity worship culture.
You mentioned that you are young. Let me tell you, you are wise beyond your years! I totally agree with your assessment of the Hollywood culture. Money, big egos, politics and agendas. That pretty much sums it up.
Best Picture winners have generally been quite popular as far as Box Office goes. The last one that can be called a flop was 'The Last Emperor' in 1987.