You honestly think the world can lose 20-40% of oil delivery for a month or so and not be seriously adversely affected? I'm talking about the financial markets, hedge funds etc.
But I do hope your rosy scenario proves out. (Rosy scenario = 12 hour air war, complete victory.) Waiting for a nuclear-armed Iran would be even worse.
"You honestly think the world can lose 20-40% of oil delivery for a month or so and not be seriously adversely affected? I'm talking about the financial markets, hedge funds etc."
Well, my point is that I dont believe there will be a disruption in oil supplies as result of this. Iran depends on oil expeorts to fund their economy. If there is oil cutoff, THE CRISIS WILL BE IN TEHRAN AND THEIR GOVERNMENT WILL COLLAPSE!
Few other points:
- Iran supplies 3 mbd, which is 4%, not 20-40%.
- SA has a pipeline direct to Red Sea side of SA.
- Weak point would be Straits of Hormuz. Simple answer of course is for US military to hae a presence there and prevent Iran from doing anything. We have a navy and airpower that Iran lacks, so any attempt by Iran to cutoff oil exports by other gulf states will fail.
- NOBODY wants Iran to have nukes. Not Sunni Saudi Arabia, not the Turks, the Indians, the Russians, not anybody.
Except the Iranian Government. We will have a lot of cooperation on Iran (that we didnt get on Iraq).
- strategic oil reserve of 600 mbd and equal amounts globally ... are enough to provide a 5 mbd buffer for about 1 year. combined with presumed high oil prices (well, they are high already), there would not be drastic supply imbalance, even if say 5-10mbd were impacted ... although it obviously would have an economic impact (slower growth, etc) were supply disruption realized.
"But I do hope your rosy scenario proves out. (Rosy scenario = 12 hour air war, complete victory.)"
My point is this: How would Iran react?
"boycott oil" and send their own economy into crisis?
sabre-rattling alone has given them their desire ... high oil prices, which are here NOW.
" Waiting for a nuclear-armed Iran would be even worse."
Yes. I've made the point that Iran is still many years away from that, and behaving openly enough to give us tools we need to stop it, so we can lay the groundwork for an internationally supported response that is successful.