The Kosovo Trap

It is only logical to presuppose that "shuttle diplomacy" will drag on but still the prospect for separation of Kosovo from Serbia is quite realistic. It is obvious as well that neither Belgrade nor Moscow, which is the last ally of the Serbian state (which will soon be abandoned by Montenegro as well), have sufficient means at their disposal to prevent this.

What would such a solution of Kosovo issue imply? Undisputedly, it will have significant impact over the subsequent definition of the approaches to be undertaken by the international community as to the solution of the "smoldering" conflicts in the periphery of Europe and the post-Soviet space (Northern Caucasus, Transdnester, Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Nagorno Karabakh).

The precedent with a probable granting of independence to Kosovo could serve as a powerful impulse for the forceful resolving of many other regional conflicts. We should not rule out the option under which some older territorial disputes be revived and some new ones be set ablaze both on the Balkans (between Albania and Macedonia, Serbia and Bosnia or Bosnia and Croatia) and outside them. Thus, the Basque, Corsican and Ulster separatists will gain additional trump-cards. The same is true for the Kurds - especially those in North Iraq.

It is not by accident that negotiations on the future of Kosovo are closely followed by the present Armenian government. The self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno Karabakh perceives a certain chance for itself in the granting of independence to the Kosovars. After all what is viable for the Albanians can be viable for the Armenians, can't it?

The independence of this region would inevitably lead to reinforcement of the positions, held by radical elements of Kosovar society; legalization of organized crime and the final transformation of Kosovo into a center for drug traffic and arms and white slave trade. Meanwhile, the new and independent quasi-state will draw as a magnet those Islamic extremists and terrorists, which have been forced away from Afghanistan, Chechnya and the Near East in the process of the "war on world terrorism", thus transforming itself into the main base of Al-Qaida in Europe.

On the other hand, granting independence to Kosovo would result in the withdrawal of most international institutions, which currently exercise control over the situation. Their place (as well as the already constructed infrastructure) will be taken over by training camps, storage facilities and bases of Islamic extremists. Making use of the critical social-economic situation (unemployment rate in the region is 60% and 30% of the Kosovars live below the poverty line), the latter would easily recruit human power for their actions. Taking into account the large Albanian dispersion in Europe, this would additional extend the zone of future terrorist attacks on the continent. The implementation of the concept for independent Kosovo will result in aggravation of the relations between the new state and Serbia and Macedonia, which in itself would significantly reduce the chances of Belgrade and Pristina for EU accession. It should be noted that at negotiations on the future status of the region, Kosovo is represented by people, who are closely connected with various Albanian criminal clans. Today they are united by their aspiration for independence but immediately after its proclamation they would wage a cruel internecine war for power and control over drug traffic and arms trade. Under such circumstances it would be too naïve to expect concrete measures and guarantees for the normal conditions of life for the minorities. In this connection, the implementation of the concept, actively promoted by the Kosovars, for "guarantees for a certain standard of life in parallel with the granting of independence" is rather counterproductive.

"Thus, the Basque, Corsican and Ulster separatists will gain additional trump-cards."

Not to mention separatists in Georgia and Transdniester

"MULTICULTURALISM" FORUM GATHERS MOSCOW'S SUPPORTERS - "In the Balkans, the ongoing separation of Kosovo from Serbia could serve as a precedent and model for conflict-resolution on Russia's terms..."

Kosovo independence would fuel separatism - Serbia

Haven't we heard all this "self-determination of peoples" stuff somewhere before?

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