Posted on 01/10/2006 10:15:10 AM PST by Rutles4Ever
So Iran has broken the seals on its nuclear reactor and gotten back to work. Now have a look at James Robbins’ “Let Iran Go Nuclear?” I don’t think it’s coincidence that Iran has taken this action at a moment when Israel is in relative paralysis. Rumors of a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities have been circulating in Israel for some time. But the Israelis cannot act without American support.
We are at war. We are not losing the war, but if Iran goes nuclear we will be. Iran is acting because it knows that Europe is weak, and because it sees the United States as paralyzed by domestic opposition to the war. During the presidential campaign, the Democrats wanted to offer Iran a “grand bargain:” we’ll give you nuclear facilities if you send us the spent fuel for safe-keeping. It’s obvious now (as it should have been then) that such a bargain is hopeless. Iran wants the bomb, and nothing but a military strike will deter it. Read that piece by Robbins and you’ll see what’s at stake. Reflecting on the question of a military strike, it seems that the main argument against it is political: Dovish Europeans, the America’s Democratic Party, and Middle Eastern countries will be angry at us for resorting to military means. This strikes me as a bad reason to hold back. The doves will be discredited when we see what comes of a nuclear Iran. But by then it will be too late.
The gamble is 80-20 to our side. IF we are are wrong, a bunch of bad guys die an one more of the World's rouge regime falls. 68,000,000 million more Muslims get to join the 21st Century.
IF YOU are wrong, millions of innocents, ours and theirs, die and we STILL fight the war only this time with nuclear weapons.
That's not the question.
The question is, what nation or group of nations has an army of sufficient size to invade Iran, displace the government, put an occupation government in place, and control the territory?
Air strikes guarantee the use of Iran's nukes.
Occupation guarantees safety.
Do you believe there are 218 congressmen and 51 senators willing to raise an army of 80 divisions and declare war on Iran?
I don't.
What a time we're living in. The only thing the U.S. needs to be isolationist about is in taking advice from other countries. I have every confidence that when push comes to shove, our president will not be listening to the likes of Brussels.
Something I learned from the Iraqi war is that we tend to accelerate greatly the timeline for something like this from our "armchair" position. I think some people expect us to start bombing any day now, but it's not that simple. The only thing that would accelerate this scenario would be if Iran directly attacked our troops in Iraq or, God forbid, actually went nuclear on Israel. The rhetoric has not reached a fever pitch yet. We'll do the U.N. dance, let Europe admit to its impotence in the matter, and then the real countdown to action will begin. If Iran were to shock the world with a nuclear test, all bets are off.
"Iran would not dare actually use their nukes. Some of the end-of-the-world Mahdi types might want to hasten the end, but their plan will be ineffective except as it applies to themselves."
You willing to bet on that---once their ICBMs can reach the US?
Let us know how your bombing mission goes.
I humbly submit that having the third largest oil industry in the world and a nuclear weapon or two would put them in the category of being an advanced industrial nation.
It may be apples and oranges in the sense that they're not churning out Panzer tanks and Volkswagens, but who needs Panzer tanks and Volswagens when you've got liquid gold and Satan-in-a-silo?
"This will escalate into another world war I fear.People were blind to Hitler in the 1930's."
It doesn't have to be a world war---any more than Hitler had to be. He could have been stopped easily---if the French attacked Hitler's back when he invaded Poland (Kimche, The Unfought War.) The French and British had already declared war on Germany as soon as the German attack on Poland was launched. French troops were fully mobilized, but France's will was paralyzed---and somehow, Hitler knew it.
"Israel will take them out"
Probably so, but the US must provide support and reassurances in advance, not just after.
So you figure it will have to go that far? I suspect if it goes that far THEN the rational will be "too dangerous to attack a nuclear power" and nothing will be done. I even suspect a significant postion of the public in both the EU and on Free Republic would STILL be arguing we do nothing after Tel Aviv disappears in a mushroom cloud.
"...Because what is bad for Americans is good for the Democrat party, and for Europe as well."
Actually, only a small # of Democrats and Europeans would benefit from a US collapse. The rest are "useful idiots."
"(Marine Corp T-Shirt "Guns don't kill people. I kill people." {Both Arabic and English})"
LOL!
Not to belabor the point, but the actual decision-makers in Iran (the President, the Ayatollah) are specifically end-of-the-world Mahdi types.
The one silver lining to such madness is the vulnerability to internal assassination. I would hope that one of the more "moderate" elements that see what would be coming at Tehran in the event of a nuclear attack on Israel would intervene at some point, but the message behind Islam is not conducive to "moderation", according even to Pope Benedict.
No doubt those who actually have the control over the weapons will react when Iran powers up its modest nuclear forces and will strike in time to prevent launch of most of it. But that is not me and it is not you.
". Everyone except Iran knows this including the Russians."
I agree. But I can't figure the Russian play on this. Do they figure they've made some money on the Iranians (its getting too dangerous to continue now) and find it less embarassing to let the US wipe them out than simply cutting them off from needed technology?
That's putting a lot of faith in madmen, RW. Remember, those are islamites indoctrinated with the religion of peace you're speaking of.
Amazing how those who know the least are always so rabidly Messianic in trying to impose their feelings on everyone else. I sorry R.W. but your ignorant opinions do not gain validity simply because you keep repeating them over and over and over with increasing volume.
Since Iran could be destroyed in an hour by any of several potential opponents, including France, it does not appear that it has much power at all. They are like a kid who puts the truck his daddy bought him in the ditch and has to walk home.
Says it all about the impact of the lefts overblown rhetoric.
They do have some nukes already and they could launch them. That will be followed by the end, their end, and for a long time to come. The destruction brought on them by the Mongols will be nothing in comparison.
The mad mullahs may indeed be mad. They have been mad since they were overrun and destroyed by the Mongols. They may be planning to take everybody with them this time, but they don't have what it takes. They can cause a lot of damage in Israel, bur they can't even destroy that little country. Are all the Iranians so suicidal? Doubt it.
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