Posted on 01/10/2006 7:09:08 AM PST by billorites
If you think Congress will declare war on Iran to prevent this, which is what is required, you are out of your mind.
MAD only worked with the Soviets because they didn't, deep down, want to die.
Unfortunately the Iranian mad mullahs and their nutjob president are crazy enough that they want to - death looks good to them because of their religious beliefs and that whole 72 virgins thing.
You can't have a standoff when one side craves martyrdom.
LQ
So WHAT?......Well "SO WHAT" is , these same Mullahs published a statement not 2 weeks ago saying ( paraphrase) The muslim world can ABSORB a nuclear exchange, after all we have the numbers to repopulate.
Thats The "SO WHAT" . Theres no inherient respect for life, M.A.D. only works if your oponent is at least half as rational as you are.
State, just seems to have its head burried in rosey sand.
Congress will declare war if Scenario One or Two happens.
You are exactly right. The nutjobs in Iran would WELCOME a nuclear holocaust.
I agree with you.
However, have you ever noticed how none of the martyrs are ever any of the leaders? Funny how martyrdome is only a good idea for the entry-level followers. Guess they never heard of "leading by example".
The leaders of the USSR knew that there was a pretty darn good chance that at least some of them would be vaporized, along with the populace in the event of a nuclear strike. My believe is that the Iranians think that we will never call their bluff, and even if they use weapons, we would never have the stomach to retaliate.
They're probably right, unfortunately.
They want to bring everyone down to their level of civilization...a nuclear holocaust does this, which is why a islamofacist country with little or no economy and/or infrastructure such as IRAN should never be allowed to possess such a weapon.
Declare War Now. The US has precedent to do so on its own.
If the Iranian regime launched a nuclear attack on Baghdad or Tel Aviv, tens of millions of Iranians, whose only crime is being governed by a bunch of nuts, would probably perish in the retaliatory strike. This in addition to the death of much of the Israeli or Iraqi population, the radioactive material introduced into the atmosphere, etc. Do these people in the State Department really want President Ahmadinejad to have nuclear missiles? It shows how out of touch with reality some people at State are.
Yep, MAD only works when all parties involved are relatively sane.
Scenario One or Two will only happen after they have tested nuclear weapons.
A nuclear Iran would stabilize the region just as a bolt of lightning would stabilize a pile of gas soaked rags with a lightning rod in it.
Bingo....
War deaths worldwide plummeted 82% from 1950 to 1995. When both sides don't want to die, neither side will purposefully start something when they know the other can annihilate them in response.... when one side doesn't care if they live, its a totally different problem...
The rumor that Foggy Bottom supports letting Iran go nuclear is only too probable.
There is no madness of which the State Department is not capable, especially when the Arabists are in charge. And we have been told on good authority that Condi has decided to defer to the Arabists in that area.
Great. Any administration that lets the State Department run its foreign policy is, as my youthful friends used to say, "cruisin' for a bruisin'."
If I were president....
Isn't that a beautiful glow rising from Tehran?
I've been saying for the last week or so that I think Israel is a red herring, and that Iran's goal is to take Saudi Arabia (and Mecca, by extension), and then control all that oil. They could control the oil fields, point a nuclear gun at the head of Europe, and then slowly bleed the West into economic catastrophe. OPEC would dissolve overnight, and a country like China would be very keen to a military alliance with nuclear Iran in exchange for favorably priced oil.
They don't have to fire a single nuclear weapon. They can have Mecca, and all that oil, AND they can get the payback they want from Iraq since the Iran-Iraq War. For us, this would draw our forces out of Baghdad, and force us to confront the Iranians in the South if they made such a move. Responding conventionally, any thoughts of withdrawing troops from Baghdad over the next 12-24 months is going to have to be shelved. If Iran moves quickly, we won't be able to base in Saudi Arabia, relying on long range bombers from Turkey, perhaps - IF we leave Iraq and have no base of operations to work from in that region.
Although all the talk is about wiping Israel off the map, my gut is telling me that's a little too obvious, and a little too certain a net negative outcome for Iran if they tried to make Tel Aviv glow. They could literally be the arbiter of world economic policies if they controlled Saudi Arabia. We musn't forget the possibility/probability that Osama bin Laden is in Iran. Bin Laden has spent most of his adult life trying to overthrow the house of Saud, so it's not beyond the realm of possibility that there are mutual interests crossing at some point between Iran and al Qaeda.
The sobering truth is that the West cannot tolerate this scenario. And if we can't attack quickly with conventional forces, decapitate the government, and spark a revolution I fear that we will have no choice but to attack Tehran with nuclear weapons. I pray this is not the case, but Ahmadenijad is the epitome of evil and willing to take a lousy bet on behalf of his people.
A nuclear test would probably provoke Israel to strike. At that point, the mood in Israel would go from "cautiously concerned" to "all in". This would be the infamous "Crossing of the Rubikon" for the Middle East.
It seems a pity that Jim Jones is gone. Perhaps the State Dept. could have used him to convince all of us to join hands and drink the Kool-Aid.
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