Posted on 01/05/2006 6:19:58 PM PST by blam
Japanese hope the good times are back to stay
By Colin Joyce in Tokyo
(Filed: 06/01/2006)
When millions watched the final episode of the phenomenally popular Project X series last week, this piece of television history was widely hailed as a sign that Japan was emerging from a 15-year recession.
On its launch in 2000, 187 episodes ago, the documentary was cited as evidence that the country's gloom would last for years. Dwelling on the glorious era of post-war growth, it looked like a show made for a nation with a brighter past than future.
Japanese executives pray for success at a new year ritual
Ratings soared with each nostalgic instalment, lauding unsung heroes such as the modest team of salarymen who created the VHS video recorder. But the end of Project X has come just as the good times seem to be back.
The stock market surged by 40 per cent last year and, after years of decline, property values are rising in Tokyo.
In December Japan recorded its first month of rising prices after two years in the quagmire of deflation.
It still has the world's second biggest economy and a strong recovery could boost global growth but economists are divided as to whether it can maintain momentum.
Stocks are still well below half their 1989 peak, while growth is far from robust.
Twice in the past decade Japan looked certain to regain its swagger, only to slump back. In the absence of any certainty, the Japanese are scrutinising some unusual data for auguries.
The "New Year Rush" often yields hints on consumer optimism. This year a record 14.4 million people headed overseas. Apparently, Japanese are no longer taking holidays at home to save money.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that sales of expensive silk ties are up and upmarket hostess bars are booming in Ginza, Tokyo's smartest district. Office workers splurged on Christmas parties and taxis became hard to hail in Tokyo for the first time in a decade.
The carefree late 1980s are closely associated with the Para Para, a dance in which girls stand in a line and perform arm movements in unison. The craze was revived in 1999 at a time of dramatic stock market growth. Both collapsed simultaneously.
Sales of DVDs showing how to Para Para are picking up, it has been noted.
In a recent book, Tatsuo Sekine analysed the similarities between now and 1985, when Japan's last great period of economic growth started. Then, the national phone company was privatised. This year it is the post office.
Then as now, in Junichiro Koizumi, a powerful prime minister provided clear leadership. Mr Sekine and other crystal ball gazers have also followed the fortunes of the Hanshin Tigers baseball team.
They triumphed in 1985 but were awful during the 1990s. They have returned to form in the past two years, prompting the theory that a strong team encourages their millions of fans to work and spend more cheerfully - and power the economy.
Japan will be populated by Koreans and Filipinos in 30 years. The Japs are not reproducing.
Interesting, thanks.
In case you missed the memo, Jap has been considered a derogatory term for about 40 years.
ping
sorry
Economic growth in Japan will assist in remedying imbalances in the global economy. If Japan is back, and I sincerely hope it is, we can expect the economies of UK and USA to be relatively stable over the medium term.
Regards, Ivan
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