The Cedar Revolution: Mission Unaccomplished-Reasons and Remedies.

Case Study: Lebanon Case mnemonic: Lebanon’s Cedar Revolution Title: The Cedar Revolution: Mission Unaccomplished-Reasons and Remedies.

"To solve the Aoun problem they need to elect him President. That is all what he wants."
You sound like those who wanted to put the whole responsibility of the Lebanese war on the shoulders of Michel Aoun. The Problem with a capital P is elsewhere. All Michel Aoun wants, and these are his own words, is the restauration of the Republic as a republic (it sounds sarcastic when we are on Free Republic), not the presidency! As for the resignation of Emile Lahoud, Michel Aoun has declared many times that he is for securing the steps of replacing Lahoud. We cannot step in the wilderness without a compass. Imagine what would be the situation if we had a vacancy in the presidency under the present governmental crisis. On the other hand, Lahoud is not a threat any more. Hariri would be a greater threat for the freedom and independence of Lebanon under a power takeover in Syria by Khaddam and Shehabi (Ghazi Kanaan was supposed to be with them). It would be a return to the 1992-2002 era though without the armed syrian presence. The Syrian army was not the tool that empowered the tandem Khaddam-Hariri during that period, it was the infiltration of all key positions in the Lebanese administration by persons loyal to this tandem, backed by the presence of the Syrian intelligence services headed first by Kanaan then by Ghazali and manned by such people as Jamea Jamea.

Patrick, long time no talk, I hope that you had a great Christmas and I wish you and your family a very happy New Year.

I am not putting the responsibility of the Lebanese war on the shoulders of General Aoun. However I am greatly disappointed with Aoun latest political positions. He sounds like a bitter person who is playing the political fence. For example why does not he call for or the resignation of Lahoud the ultimate Syrian agent in Lebanon? There will be no vacancy in the Presidency if Lahoud is ousted since once the 2/3 of the Parliament decide to remove Lahoud from office it will be done so after the election of a new President. Aoun wants to be the President of Lebanon and any person who believes otherwise is fooling himself.

In regard to your analysis about Hariri being a greater threat to Lebanon independence if Khaddam was in charge of Syria instead of Assad, I think that is not correct, and I hope that this is not what Aoun is telling his supporters because it is another clear indication of his limited capability in political judgment.

First of all, Hariri the son and his alliance are not a threat to Lebanon independence under any circumstances. Second, I have never expected in my life that General Aoun was going to “indirectly” defend the Assad terrorist regime that has caused so much suffering to the Lebanese people and to the Syrian people. It is true that Khaddam was part of this regime more than anyone else and Khaddam was also responsible for the suffering of the Lebanese people for a long period of time, however when Khaddam speaks out against the brutality of the Syrian regime as he has been doing in the last two weeks, it is politically wise for Aoun to support what Khaddam is saying instead of playing the stupid game of staying on the fence. For example when Khaddam implicated the Syrian terrorist regime in the assassination of Rafik Hariri; Aoun said that Khaddam should talk about who killed Bashir Al Gemeyal in 1982 and Rene Moawad in 1990. This statement by Aoun is practically telling Khaddam to shut up because “you were a very active VP of Syria when the Syrian regime killed both and thus you were involved”. This is a great indication of Aoun unwise politics because instead of encouraging Khaddam to keep talking against the Syrian terrorist regime, he is asking him to be silent. Of course Khaddam will not stop talking because of what General Aoun said and he will keep telling the world about the Syrian regime and that is a very bad omen for the current dictator of Damascus and his gang.

Again, I think that General Aoun is a very bitter person whose only political goal is to be President of Lebanon. Let him go and talk to the Haririr alliance and make a deal with them instead of playing all these unwise politics. He should tell them “Elect me President and I will give you my 21 MP’s to get the required 2/3 Parliament vote to remove Lahoud and make new Presidential elections”.

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