Posted on 01/04/2006 9:52:41 AM PST by finnman69
Everybody from Los Angeles to Boston -- your mom, your doctor, your dry cleaner -- is puzzling over which way the nation's real estate market is headed. Up or down? Bubble or not?
It's a debate that's been raging for years, and recently that there have been clear signs of a slowdown. It's unlikely, however, that the housing market will come to a screeching halt.
To get a clearer picture of how things may play out, FORTUNE turned to Moody's Economy.com and home property-valuation service Fiserv CSW.
The researchers crunched numbers on the 100 largest metropolitan regions in the country, and the results of their analysis appear in the table below.
Nationally, the overall outlook seems reasonable: 7 percent appreciation for 2006 and flat for 2007. But markets that have seen the greatest appreciation over the past five years appear to be vulnerable.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
| Rank | Metro Area | State | Median home price |
Projected growth 2006 |
Projected growth 2007 |
| 1 | San Antonio | TX | $129,900 | 8.30% | 7.00% |
| 2 | Jacksonville | FL | $164,700 | 8.10% | 2.50% |
| 3 | El Paso | TX | $107,100 | 8.10% | 7.10% |
| 4 | Little Rock-North Little Rock | AR | $115,700 | 7.80% | 7.20% |
| 5 | Baton Rouge | LA | $133,800 | 7.60% | 3.80% |
| 6 | Richmond | VA | $191,800 | 7.40% | 3.30% |
| 7 | Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News | VA | $193,100 | 7.30% | 1.00% |
| 8 | Nashville-Davidson-Newport News | TN | $157,300 | 7.10% | 6.70% |
| 9 | Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown | TX | $139,800 | 7.00% | 6.60% |
| 10 | Memphis | TN | $147,600 | 7.00% | 6.50% |
| 11 | Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton | PA | $247,400 | 6.90% | 1.20% |
| 12 | Oklahoma City | OK | $116,900 | 6.90% | 6.00% |
| 13 | Birmingham-Hoover | AL | $152,500 | 6.90% | 5.40% |
| 14 | Albuquerque | NM | $166,700 | 6.50% | 6.10% |
| 15 | Columbia | SC | $133,200 | 6.40% | 5.40% |
| 16 | Fort Worth-Arlington | TX | $125,700 | 6.30% | 5.00% |
| 17 | Syracuse | NY | $109,400 | 6.20% | 5.40% |
| 18 | Dayton | OH | $116,500 | 6.10% | 5.60% |
| 19 | McAllen-Edinburg-Mission | TX | $71,000 | 6.10% | 6.20% |
| 20 | Salt Lake City | UT | $165,700 | 6.10% | 3.40% |
| 21 | Austin-Round Rock | TX | $161,800 | 6.10% | 5.00% |
| 22 | Tulsa | OK | $116,600 | 6.10% | 6.20% |
| 23 | Pittsburgh | PA | $113,000 | 6.00% | 5.00% |
| 24 | Cincinnati-Middletown | OH | $146,200 | 6.00% | 6.60% |
| 25 | Albany-Schenectady-Troy | NY | $176,700 | 6.00% | 4.50% |
| 26 | Dallas-Plano-Irving | TX | $155,500 | 5.90% | 6.30% |
| 27 | St. Louis | MO | $134,900 | 5.80% | 4.10% |
| 28 | Toledo | OH | $116,400 | 5.70% | 5.00% |
| 29 | Greenville | SC | $141,300 | 5.70% | 5.00% |
| 30 | Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice | FL | $314,300 | 5.60% | -3.60% |
| 31 | Indianapolis | IN | $121,700 | 5.60% | 5.40% |
| 32 | Wichita | KS | $107,200 | 5.50% | 4.80% |
| 33 | Columbus | OH | $150,700 | 5.50% | 6.00% |
| 34 | Akron | OH | $117,600 | 5.40% | 5.30% |
| 35 | Buffalo-Niagara Falls | NY | $96,400 | 5.40% | 5.30% |
| 36 | Knoxville | TN | $140,100 | 5.40% | 5.20% |
| 37 | New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner | LA | $149,100 | 5.40% | 6.60% |
| 38 | Rochester | NY | $111,200 | 5.30% | 6.80% |
| 39 | Raleigh-Cary | NC | $183,100 | 5.20% | 5.10% |
| 40 | Philadelphia | PA | $199,400 | 5.10% | 0.50% |
| 41 | Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord | NC | $172,800 | 5.10% | 5.50% |
| 42 | Louisville | KY | $134,800 | 5.00% | 4.60% |
| 43 | Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis | WI | $210,900 | 4.80% | 2.50% |
| 44 | Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater | FL | $193,700 | 4.80% | -0.50% |
| 45 | Greensboro-High Point | NC | $145,100 | 4.80% | 5.50% |
| 46 | Kansas City | MO/KS | $154,600 | 4.70% | 4.10% |
| 47 | Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown | NY | $265,000 | 4.60% | 0.80% |
| 48 | Youngstown-Warren-Boardman | OH | $83,400 | 4.50% | 5.30% |
| 49 | Gary | IN | $127,300 | 4.40% | 3.40% |
| 50 | Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor | OH | $142,800 | 4.30% | 5.10% |
| 51 | Omaha-Council Bluffs | NE | $136,100 | 4.30% | 4.10% |
| 52 | Lake County, Kenosha County | IL/WI | $259,100 | 4.20% | 1.90% |
| 53 | Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta | GA | $165,300 | 4.20% | 4.00% |
| 54 | Honolulu | HI | $570,400 | 4.00% | -1.00% |
| 55 | Orlando-Kissimmee | FL | $226,400 | 3.80% | -0.50% |
| 56 | Grand Rapids | MI | $137,300 | 3.60% | 2.90% |
| 57 | Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach | FL | $356,600 | 3.10% | -4.50% |
| 58 | Springfield | MA | $197,900 | 3.00% | 1.20% |
| 59 | Portland-Beaverton-Vancouver | OR/WA | $234,600 | 3.00% | -0.70% |
| 60 | Baltimore-Towson | MD | $249,100 | 2.90% | -0.80% |
| 61 | Tucson | AZ | $220,900 | 2.90% | -4.00% |
| 62 | Camden | NJ | $210,800 | 2.70% | 0.80% |
| 63 | Denver-Aurora | CO | $244,800 | 2.60% | 2.50% |
| 64 | Wilmington | DE | $231,000 | 2.50% | 1.70% |
| 65 | Seattle-Bellevue-Everett | WA | $335,500 | 2.50% | 1.00% |
| 66 | Tacoma | WA | $222,700 | 2.30% | 0.60% |
| 67 | W. Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach | FL | $386,200 | 2.10% | -3.90% |
| 68 | Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale | AZ | $238,100 | 2.00% | -3.70% |
| 69 | Warren-Farmington Hills-Troy | MI | $196,000 | 1.90% | 0.80% |
| 70 | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria | DC/VA | $404,900 | 1.80% | -3.40% |
| 71 | Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford | CT | $257,600 | 1.80% | 0.60% |
| 72 | Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall | FL | $343,700 | 1.80% | -5.50% |
| 73 | Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn | MI | $120,100 | 1.60% | 2.00% |
| 74 | Newark-Union | NJ | $407,000 | 1.50% | -1.80% |
| 75 | New Haven-Milford | CT | $280,300 | 1.40% | 0.60% |
| 76 | Worcester | MA | $287,800 | 1.30% | -0.30% |
| 77 | Edison | NJ | $387,900 | 1.20% | -2.90% |
| 78 | Chicago-Naperville-Joliet | IL | $264,900 | 1.10% | 0.20% |
| 79 | Cambridge-Newton-Framingham | MA | $448,800 | 0.80% | 0.00% |
| 80 | Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington | MN | $234,600 | 0.70% | 0.70% |
| 81 | Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk | CT | $472,500 | 0.40% | -1.30% |
| 82 | New York City-White Plains-Wayne | NY/NJ | $504,800 | 0.10% | -3.50% |
| 83 | San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City | CA | $766,000 | 0.10% | -2.90% |
| 84 | Bethesda-Gaithersburg-Frederick | MD | $444,500 | 0.00% | -0.50% |
| 85 | Boston-Quincy | MA | $422,900 | -0.10% | -1.40% |
| 86 | Essex County | MA | $380,600 | -0.20% | -0.70% |
| 87 | Stockton | CA | $423,100 | -0.30% | -5.90% |
| 88 | San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara | CA | $720,900 | -0.40% | -3.90% |
| 89 | Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura | CA | $480,300 | -0.70% | -5.00% |
| 90 | Oakland-Fremont-Hayward | CA | $651,300 | -0.70% | -4.40% |
| 91 | Fresno | CA | $340,800 | -0.80% | -2.80% |
| 92 | Bakersfield | CA | $286,300 | -0.80% | -3.00% |
| 93 | Providence-Fall River-New Bedford | RI/MA | $292,800 | -1.10% | -2.20% |
| 94 | Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville | CA | $372,900 | -1.20% | -5.10% |
| 95 | Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale | CA | $412,900 | -1.60% | -6.30% |
| 96 | Nassau-Suffolk counties | NY | $461,300 | -2.00% | -4.20% |
| 97 | Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario | CA | $362,800 | -2.60% | -6.80% |
| 98 | Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine | CA | $682,300 | -3.10% | -6.10% |
| 99 | San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos | CA | $598,700 | -3.40% | -5.70% |
| 100 | Las Vegas-Paradise | NV | $296,000 | -7.90% | -5.00% |
|
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If you have to ask......
There is no bubble, nothing to see here. Move on.
Looks like the liberal states will be the ones taking the punch... couldn't have happened to a nicer croud of people :)
This is what passes for reasonable ?>>>>>>>>>
It might actually be in line with the true inflation rate, not the official government massaged figures.
The numbers posted strike me as fairly sensible, and I own my real estate "empire" in the negative zone, except for a modest tentacle into Portland. Isn't "diversification" great?
Best growth predicted in lower, more reasonable Red State areas...overpriced places falling.
Just as I've said...Ohio looks good. So does most of the midwest. The people stupid enough to spend boo-koo bucks in the "hot" markets will lose their a$$es.
Some comparisons of what 450 grand gets ya:
Uniontown, Ohio (Suburban Akron/Canton area) for $449,000:
http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/HomeListing.asp?snum=2&frm=byzip&lid=Enter+MLS+ID&pgnum=1&ss_aywr=&st=&mls=xmls&mnbed=0&js=on&mnsqft=0&fid=so&vtsort=&poe=realtor&mnprice=400000&ct=&zp=44685&mxprice=450000&typ=1&exft=0&exft=0&exft=0&mnbath=0&sid=0601CD7E0C17C&snumxlid=1050907589&lnksrc=00002
San Fransicko, CA
http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/HomeListing.asp?snum=2&mlsttl=&frm=bymap&pgnum=1&mls=xmls&js=on&target=&ct=san+francisco&st=CA&sbint=&sbls=&sblo=&stype=&areaid=574&lid=Enter+MLS+ID&ss_aywr=&mnsqft=0&fid=so&vtsort=&exft=0&exft=0&exft=0&mnprice=400000&mxprice=700000&mnbed=0&mnbath=0&typ=1&poe=realtor&x=27&y=10&sid=0601CDE13D1DC&snumxlid=1054396561&lnksrc=00002
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