I'm just a impassioned observer of the geopolitical game being played out. Unfortunately, Ukraine is still way too much intertwined economically to Russia to be able to peel off their sphere of influence. And that's why there will be very little payback, if any, at least in the short term. It's just a reality.
I know Poland has suffered greatly at Russian hands, and Poles are sure trying damn hard to be a thorn in Russian dealings in what Russians consider to be their sphere of influence. Poland's explicit support for Ukraine has not gone unnoticed. That's a payback if I've ever seen one. But don't get too carried away - Russians are not very nice people, and there are some lines that are better not crossed. Hell, they publicly threatened war if Ukraine were to "review" black sea ports treaty. Noone wants that.
Hell, using a threat is business-as-usual Kremlin's tool for geopolitics. Who cares? Ukrainians were promised price of $230 per 1K of cubic meters. They get $95 and significant increase in transit fees. So question who won the conflict is rather rhetoric. What's more in international arena Russia lost credibility in the eyes of EU customers not to mention those people in worldwide who believed that Putin's hardline policy is justified to counterbalance influence of India and China. War? They can't even effectively handle one war in tiny Chechnya. Another conventional war with country the size of Ukraine would be the end of Russia in today's shape, and Russian generals know it. I don't believe Chinese would think twice before "protecting" West China territories of Siberia, too.