Joey Bag O' Donuts went #3 four years ago. Someone can make the same mistake with Matt.
I feel you are correct.
To be fair, every first round QB is just an educated crap shoot. When Manning was drafted, many felt that Ryan Leif was the superior QB.
It's just really hard to tell. Arm strength is one very good objective measure however, but I don't know how Lienhart measures up in this category.
In college, touch passes and floaters are very effective. In the NFL, every player is quick so most throws have to have some zip behind them. This is why a lot of Miami and Florida QBs did so well in college but were ineffective in college.
Drafting just on arm strength has it's own disadvantages though as it can lead you to a Ryan Lief and other such QBs that physical skills but cannot mentally handle the much faster and greatly more complex NFL game.