Posted on 12/31/2005 4:18:43 AM PST by Lukasz
MOSCOW, Russia (UPI) -- The energy watchdog founded by industrial nations after Arab nations launched an oil embargo is sounding alarms over Russia`s plans for Europe`s gas supply.
One of the world`s largest natural gas producers, Russia is building a pipeline under the Baltic Sea directly to Germany in a venture that Poland and its Baltic state neighbors see as a prelude to commodity-based blackmail.
The Kremlin has responded to such concerns by hiring former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who helped negotiate the project, as chairman of the so-called North European Gas Pipeline.
But this week, the International Energy Agency took its first public stand on the pipeline, and it was distinctly alarmist, MosNews said Friday.
The group`s chief economist said there is no financial rationale for a $2 billion, 744-mile undersea pipeline that skirts northeastern Europe. While the Kremlin says it will 'secure' Poland`s energy supplies, 'We dismiss that argument,' said IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol.
Nor is their any geopolitical reason for Germany to make itself as abjectly dependent on the Kremlin for natural gas as the pipeline will make it, Briol said.
'This is worrying and puts Germany`s energy safety at risk.'
No financial rationale? What about Western Europe getting gas significantly cheaper, without the increased transit fees they'd have to pay for pipelines over alternate routes over Poland and Ukraine? What about getting an increased supply of a product it increasingly needs, after having decomissioned their nuclear power plants? How would they be better off without this additional pipeline source of gas, that doesn't make sense.
The German government was completely idiotic to shut down their nuclear power plants. It's hard to think of a more stupid and crazy action by any european country. But with this a done deal, they need to be increasing sources of supply. If they can't keep these nuclear power plants running or add more, they need to find replacement sources such as this pipeline. They should continue to add additional diversified sources of energy. Their "green" party and populace are precluding several of those options, unfortunately.
If Russia is the main source of European natural gas, and Russia wants to cut off that supply to Europe for some future political reason, what difference does it make if it cuts off the supply through a new supply route or through the existing supply route?
I fail to see how adding a new supply route increases the ability of the supplier to cut off the supply. By definition, a supplier is someone who can cut off the supply.
Is it just me, or has the relationship between Russia and Germany gotten uncomfortably close?
It is a lot harder to sabotage an underwater pipeline than one on land.
Sorry but transit fees are just pennies comparing to the overall cost of this project. It would be the same if you would live in the US but prefer to go to the cinema in Russia because tickets are cheaper.
What about getting an increased supply of a product it increasingly needs, after having decomissioned their nuclear power plants?
Build new nuclear plants or normal pipeline, this is that easy.
This pipeline is in fact threat for Germany, if they will finish this project this country will be dependent more than 50% from Russian deliveries. While today we see that Kremlin openly consider energy as a tool in their foreign policy.
Actually Russia would like to have a possibility to cut supplies especially for the new Europe. That is why they are building costly undersea pipeline directly to Germany.
I don’t know, but I know that it is a lot harder to repair underwater pipeline than traditional :)
With the current pipeline location. Poland has the ability to shut down the section of the pipeline in their country. This has given Poland the ability to negotiate better gas prices. Also protect itself from Russia from cutting off supply to them, for political reasons. Russia could not cut off gas to Poland, and then expect Poland to allow the gas to flow through their lands to countries like Germany.
It's funny that the creation of the EU, was to unify the countries of Europe, but instead two of it founding members, Germany and France, are always looking to take from other members. And give nothing back.
.
Sorry. Not to be argumentative, but I guess I just don't get it. Maybe it's still early in the morning for me to be considering geopolitical energy routes.
But let me ask you this: at one end of the current Polish pipeline, the Poles take gas out. Where is the other end of that pipeline and who is putting the gas in?
Not making a joke here. Serious question. If the answer it "the Russians", then I'm sticking to my original point. If not, then I might be wrong.
Can't wait until Putin unveils the rest of his energy security programs. He is to host the next G-8 Summit and he has said it will be about energy security!!!
Thank you, Lukasz.
I'd say that map confirms what I've been saying.
The SUPPLY END of the existing pipeline is in Russia.
The SUPPLY END of the proposed pipeline is in Russia.
Therefore, the only country capable of cutting off the SUPPLY is....
(drum roll please)
... RUSSIA!
(regardless of which pipeline one considers)
No, for example if Russia would want to cut supplies for Poland and still supply Germany through Poland then the Poles have a possibility to block German supplies and the Russians wouldn’t sell their gas to Germany. Almost every Eastern European country is in similar situation as Poland.
Good point. The new pipleline would give Russia more fine-tune control over who they block the supply to.
Thanks for correcting me on this. Like I said, early in the morning.
Another point confirms you thinking. Having gas go directly from Russia, means poland and Ukraine are not in a position to block their supply. Germany is no longer a victim pawn playing card in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine/Poland, since they will receive gas directly without an intermediary. Poland can't say Russia we don't like your price, and if you don't give us what we want we will block all supply to germany! This improves Germanys energy security.
Until Russia ups the price too much for Germany and then the Germans have 0 recourse.
I see that you constantly ignore the fact that Germany will be dependent from Russian gas supplies more than 50%. How such dependence from one unstable supplier could improve their security? Poland currently buy 48% (Germany is buying a lot more gas than Poland so their 50% is not equal with Polish 50%) of gas from Russia and hardly working to develop own gas resources to reduce this dependence like other Eastern European countries. While Germany’s Schroeder for sake of own particular interests is going in the opposite direction.
You're right. Decreases Poland's leverage. We can only hope it takes a long time to build this new pipeline.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.