PING!
Won't people just find alternatives to black gold when that becomes rare?
Of course they will find alternatives. The technology to get more oil is here already, it just varies as to the price at which it is economically feasible. There is a new microwave leaching technique that is enviro friendly and economically feasible at today's prices for removing high quality gas and oil from shale. There are plenty of wells that will become profitable as oil prices increase. As far as alternatives, people will just adjust to the higher prices. Car pooling, moving closer to work, working from home....riding a bike for crying out loud. Bottom line is: If the price is right, Shell and Co can find as much oil as we need. If it all dried up tomorrow, we could simply put a convertor on our cars and run biofuels made from corn. The Middle East happens to be a source of high quality, fairly reasonable crude. Their leaders are willing to sell every last drop. We are willing to pay a premium of sorts in the short term...ie put up with the OPEC cartel in order to preserve our national reserves. If oil dries up in the Middle East, their leaders will all take their fat bank accounts and move to Europe and their people will go back to their Bedouin nomadic lifestyles, roaming the desert and eating dirt sandwiches.
The need for massive improvements, including dedicated truck lanes and expensive tolls, could be avoided if only truck traffic were diverted off the highways and onto the railroads, chants the rising chorus of rail enthusiasts.
Of course the Rail enthusiasts will go for this. They want the additional revenues from increased business. I would like to hear their explanations of how a train is going to stop at the local mall to offload its goods. Trucks will still be needed on the roads.
As far as tolls are concerned, I'd like to know what is becoming of the billions in fuel taxes which were supposed to be slated for roadways.
Ethanol and soybean oil.