Dan Walters: Governor miscalculated, fumbled as he declared his war

After the 2004 election Schwarzenegger met with political advisers to discuss how he could regain momentum. Schwarzenegger had denounced Democratic legislators as "girlie men", vetoed bills pushed by Democrats and tried to unseat Democratic legislators. Despite his failure in legislative elections, Schwarzenegger had emerged with high popularity and had personally intervened to defeat a ballot measure that would have weakened the state's "three strikes" law.

How could Schwarzenegger leverage his popularity to move an agenda through a Capitol dominated by Democrats, immune to punishment at the polls, thanks to a 2001 bipartisan gerrymander of legislative districts? The strategy that emerged was to push a series of measures to change the balance of power in the Capitol, increasing the governor's power over the budget. Philosophically, it was the agenda that Schwarzenegger's mentor, former Gov. Pete Wilson, had left on the table.

Schwarzenegger initially held advantages. But he squandered those advantages through bad advice and bad decision-making - beginning with his erroneous belief that once he launched his campaign, Democratic legislators would readily compromise. Schwarzenegger underestimated the resolve of Democrats and their allies, especially unions, not to cede power. His failure to unseat Democratic legislators in 2004 had diminished his standing inside the Capitol, even though it didn't affect his popularity outside.

Even then the drive was beginning to falter. The measures were not being drafted, refined and vetted for bulletproof wording. Details of several were still in flux when the governor declared that, "This place is in the grip of the special interests. The people of California demand reform (and) if we don't work together to reform the government, the people will rise up and reform it themselves and I will join them and will fight with them." The war was officially declared, but Schwarzenegger's forces were already in disarray.

Schwarzenegger lost conservative, Republican voter enthusiasm and then support because he compromised and so soon, so early in his term, with the Democrats.

No one said it would be easy to be a Republican in the Governor's office in CA. But, he said he wanted it, said he'd do it as a Republican, and then took office and immediately made quite liberal determinations.

And had a horrible staff, and now has an even worse one.

Schwarzenegger has lost confidence of conservatives. He'd just as well declare the Democrats in the Governor's office because he's governoring for and to them, not to and for Republicans, certainly not conservatives.

The state is today constructed and contingent, reliant, upon quite liberal, union-heavy ultra Left Democrats in the legislature, and throughout the state. To make any changes to that, conservative voters are necessary. You can't court and keep conservative voters by governing as a Democrat.

You can't court and keep conservative voters by governing as a Democrat.

You shouldn't be able to court and keep Republicans by governing as a Democrat, either.
Yet Sundheim still voices undying support!

The governor described to this writer, inside his famous smoking tent, in early December 2004, how he would tell voters that they had elected him to clean up the Capitol's mess and he needed reforms to do the job, framing it as a vote of confidence in himself, rather than a detailed debate. "We must keep it simple," he said.

That was a bad strategy, IMO. If he had drafted the right propositions and offered some straight talk as to why they were needed, he may have succeeded. Instead, he antagonized a majority of the public and offered non-credible soundbites. Later in the campaign, he resorted to threats (Vote for Prop 76 or we will have to raise taxes), despite the fact that Prop 76 would not reduce spending until many for years in the future, if ever.

This was the real reason: "Schwarzenegger underestimated - not for the first time, nor the last - the resolve of Democrats and their allies, especially unions, not to cede power. His failure to unseat Democratic legislators had diminished his standing inside the Capitol, even though it didn't affect his popularity outside, and unions were prepared to spend tens of millions of dollars to resist."

Schwarzenegger underestimated the resolve of Democrats and their allies, especially unions

Which begs the obvious question. Will he veto a budget and empower the legislative minority?

Politics isn't subtle, it's raw power; to rule without regard, to force compromise or to muck up the works. Charisma helps in leadership but feet on the ground persuade.

The only weapon the CAGOP can muster at this point is the super-majority required to override a veto. If the CAGOP can hold their legislative membership together, at the very leas, they can hamstring the budget process, sending a clear message to contractors and public unions lingering at the taxpayer trough that there is a due process that protects minority rights.

"If you want to continue to dig deep into the taxpayer's pocket there are a few things you must do for us first. If not, you'll have to wait."

But yet there is a lack of resolve to hold the line. When did "socialism slow is better then socialism fast" become the CAGOP party platform? I say that Sundheim etal. need to be deposed.

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