Disagree. China is a sham. It is NOT the 800-pound gorilla in the living room.
The "economic miracle" has not reached beyond the coastal cities. 99% of China lives in such reprehensible economic conditions that the addition of a vending machine automatically raises the "economic productivity" of those areas by 1,000%.
When it comes to military power, China can exert influence in it's direct enviorns, but not project power beyond it's borders. Doing such would require an industrial base and logistical capabilities far beyond their current levels.
Civil unrest in China is possible at any moment, and with the advent of the internet, cell phones, satellite phones, 24-hour cable news, cable and satellite TV, and other modern communications, would only be a more effective weapon against the Communist Party. Tianamen Square might actually have succeeded if it had the communications capability afforded by millions of cell phones able to transmit still and live video, e-mail, etc. An informed public, able to communicate, is the most dangerous thing in China.
China is dependant on the flow of Middle Eastern oil, just like we are. It is suceptible to interruptions of that supply, just as we are. We currently patrol the Persian Gulf, the Straits of Oman and the Indian Ocean, and have troops and bases in Iraq. We have the Gulf covered. If China should turn to Iran, however, that may be a problem, but it would be an interesting debate as to whether the Iranians would come to the aid of the (more) godless ex-communists.
China is dependant on the flow of Western, particularly American, investment money, which finances it's apparent economic growth, which is easily turned off at the source (just remove 'permanent' MFN status by act of Congress and tell the Wall Streeter's protecting their bad investments to pound sand). The resulting economic dislocation it would cause in this country would sort itself out in time, but totally destroy the Chinese economy.
China is surrounded by Western-style democracies (South Korea, Japan, India, Australia, The Phillipines) which in the event of war would serve as adversaries or bases for adversaries. China cannot depend on it's allies in the region (North Korea)for aid. The Russians still fear the Chinese more than they fear the West. China stands alone.
China, in other words, is f*cked. We cannot even call them "communists" anymore, since they hardly practice it. Where it not for the Chinese nuclear arsenal, we'd hardly consider them a threat at all.
"99% of China lives in such reprehensible economic conditions that the addition of a vending machine automatically raises the "economic productivity" of those areas by 1,000%..."
LOL!
"China is dependant on the flow of Western, particularly American, investment money, which finances it's apparent economic growth, which is easily turned off at the source (just remove 'permanent' MFN status by act of Congress and tell the Wall Streeter's protecting their bad investments to pound sand). The resulting economic dislocation it would cause in this country would sort itself out in time, but totally destroy the Chinese economy."
I completely agree. I am surprised how many "experts" can't get this fact that is so obvious to you and me. I really consider it a byproduct of the tremendous disinformation campaign our society is subjected to by the Hard Left (on a worldwide basis.)
I wasn't making the argument for the state of their economy, but solely when you have a totalitarian government in place with the aformentioned nuclear weaponry, and a population 4 times ours, I'd still call it an 800-lb gorilla.
Thanks, Very interesting points to mull over, to ponder/reconsider...in effect, PLA is "where USA was in Spanish-American War" right now...seemingly great potential, little "ready" capitol (no $$$$) infrastructure? :^)