I saw this coming when Layton pulled the plug.
The Tories and the Bloc put a gun in Layton's hand and made him pull the trigger.
Net effect NDP flight to the Liberals.
A classic sucker play.
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie.Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
My guess, is that Ontario voters don't trust anyone but the Liberals to keep Canada together. Ontario views Ontario as of the essence of Canada, and the Conservatives all about the estranged plains.