[Checkers]

How does this "14 year rule" apply against the '08 contenders?

Is George Allen "not fresh"? What is Hillary's expiration date, 2018 or 2006? Are McCain, Rudy and Newt toast?

[RockinRight]

Hillary expired about 20 years ago, methinks.

[CurlyBill]

Hillary's date is tied to Bill's... expired.

[Politicalities]

This makes about as much sense as the now-defunct Redskins Rule.

By his rules, Hillary expires in 2014, having been first elected to a major office in 2000. But it's a silly rule anyway.

[Eagles Talon IV]

This is an excellent example of using the past to predict the future. It works each and every time, until it doesn't.

[Behind Liberal Lines]

Are McCain, Rudy and Newt toast?

I'm not sure Mayors count as "major office."

[Behind Liberal Lines]

Never mind. I see where he included Mayors of large cities

[advance_copy]

But if a politician first runs for some other major office, the 14-year clock starts ticking.

Bill Clinton ran for Congress in 1974, 18 years before he was elected President. George W. Bush ran for Congress in 1978, 22 years before he was elected President.

Now, if we're talking years since being elected or first taking office, Newt Gingrich has expired (elected to Congress in 1989 after losing two prior attempts). Rudy Giuliani was first elected Mayor of New York City in 1994, so he won't quite be expired in 2008. McCain was first elected in 1982, so he's way past the point of spoilage. Hillary was rotten out of the box, but technically she has not past the posted expiration date (I think she is designed to smell like that).

George Allen was first elected Governor of Virginia in 1993, so he will be technically past expiration date in 2008. But George Allen's shelf life is longer than all other politicians because he's downright cool.

[Kenny Bunk]

Checkers, what a great post!

I would love to point out to the author, in re Bill Clinton:

Had he not won the presidency in 1992, his national career would have been over.

Had George H.W. Bush been alive, Bill Clinton would never have won, either.

[Names Ash Housewares]

Americans elect Governors, ex-Governors, VPs or ex-Vps, and re-elect sitting Presidents in recent history.
Senators in recent history rarely win. Kennedy was the only Senator in recent history that has made it and just barely, and even that election is questioned for fraud.

[Verginius Rufus]

I guess we can stop worrying about senators-for-life Robert C. Byrd, Edward M. Kennedy, and Daniel Inouye.

[Alter Kaker]

Not only is this a stupid rule, but it only works if you play games, by pretending that Vice President (for Nixon, Bush, Truman, etc.) is the same as President. It isn't. When Richard Nixon ran for President in 1968, it has been 22 years since he had first been elected to high office. Not exactly a political novice.

[JasonC]

There is an obvious reason for this phenomenon. Someone of sufficient ability goes up on their own. Getting close to the big leagues but never successfully entering them, is itself a sign of lack of ability, backing, and ambition.