No, for reasons I described in posts 135 and 144.
I think you are right in most instances, but for the special case of an object very close to the transmitter the solidangle subtended by the object can be quite large and the energy in the reflection can be higher than for a similar object far away.
Clearly the receiving radar is set up to ignore signals below some threshold, and this works to rejuct the clutter which reflections would otherwise give. But, a missile attack, a chase plane, etc. is an extraordinary circumstance with an extremely strong reflection and the system might pick it up.
Another possibility, although slim, is the possibility of a "diffractive ghost". This could occur if an object, opaque to the radar signal, were between the aircraft and the receiving radar. Energy diffracting around the edges of the object would produce what in optics is called "the spot of Agago", or "the island of Arago". This is a very bright spot centered in the shadow of a circular object, but would be of a different and hard-to-predict character for a complex shadow as made by a missile.