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To: getsoutalive

The discipline of the market has prevented serious inflation in serious countries for two decades. Central Bankers in free economies cannot merely fire up the printing presses and have their way with their country's currency any more - only the pathetic Zimbabwes, Burmas, and Cubas of this world can do that.

This discipline has had the effect of motivating CBs in Europe to liquidate their gold holdings over the last decade. This process is unlikely to continue; almost impossible, in fact, since the CBs involved have expressed no interest in further large sales. Meanwhile, Russia, India, and China are clearly moving towards enlarging their bullion holdings.

In round figures, annual demand for gold is 4000T, while annual mined production is only 3000T. The 1000T shortfall has been met by CB liquidation over the last term. That's disappearing as a damper. The price of gold in dollars should rise to about $700/oz to balance annual supply/demand, according to mining economists.

Just as with oil, new gold production is expensive and time-consuming. I've been involved with mining stocks, and their promotion and finance for twenty years, and I'm still surprised at how long it takes from discovery to production - almost a decade, in most cases. Gold production is still dropping year on year, because the artificially low prices in the late '90s discouraged investment in both exploration and development. Production cannot materially increase for several years, no matter the price of gold - that's why we'll get a speculative blow-off peak at some absurd price point when the bubble attracts broad participation, but that's a long way down the road from here, imho.

This is still early days.


182 posted on 12/12/2005 10:57:50 AM PST by headsonpikes (The Liberal Party of Canada are not b*stards - b*stards have mothers!)
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To: headsonpikes
The discipline of the market has prevented serious inflation in serious countries for two decades. Central Bankers in free economies cannot merely fire up the printing presses and have their way with their country's currency any more - only the pathetic Zimbabwes, Burmas, and Cubas of this world can do that.

Sorry, but I do not believe that this is correct. Money growth since Nixon's closing of the gold window in '73 has been huge. And we are certainly not the only country.

http://www.economagic.com/gif/g1920770198012135113364138227001428.gif

188 posted on 12/12/2005 11:53:54 AM PST by getsoutalive
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