The Hotline's Take on the 48th

Is "immigration" the great overlooked issue that is ready to shoot up the "importance" chart? Or is it simply the obsession of a passionate, and vocal, minority of GOPers? -- The results out of immigration's first big electoral test in CA 48 seem to favor the latter. Minuteman founder Jim Gilchrist (I) spent approx $500K (nearly 4 times the Dem nominee), was covered in the media as if he were the chief challenger to eventual winner John Campbell (R) and was running in one of the most immigration-focused CDs (the O.C.). -- And yet, Gilchrist finished 3rd with 25%, trailing a Dem nominee who couldn't even top 10% in the 1st round of voting. -- We have yet to see a nat'l poll showing immigration topping double-digits in importance, and anecdotal evidence tells us Jerry Kilgore's immigration hit didn't impact swing voters in VA GOV. Clearly, it's important to a vocal segment of GOPers, but whether it's an issue that moves swing voters is up for debate. Could THE lawmakers hearing so much about immigration be falling victim to a minority of constituents who just happen to show up to town meetings?~~~"

Bad analysis by the Hotline editors. The issues surrounding border security are real and do resonate with voters, but the new Congressman, John Campbell, addressed those issues every day of the campaign and walked away with the race despite the huge effort by the Gilchrist forces and the round-the-clock pumping of Gilchrist by local talk radio pot-and-pan bangers who tried unsuccessfully to distort Campbell's very strong positions. Had Campbell not been very solid on these issues, he'd have had a much tougher race. Message to GOP: Be very strong on border security and stay far away from amnesty.

From John Fund, who's opinion I'd put more credence in that Hewitt's:

"Mr. Gilchrist was far from an ideal candidate. He had declared personal bankruptcy, admitted that he wanted to raise taxes and told a reporter he had voted for the Green Party candidate in the last election for governor. But he was able to raise $600,000 from direct mail touting his views on immigration and practically turned Los Angeles talk show hosts John Kobylt and Ken Chiampou into his precinct captains. The two radio hosts forced the front-runner, GOP State Senator John Campbell, to apologize for voting in favor of reduced tuition at state universities for the children of illegals. Mr. Campbell even declared his support for creation of a state border police and said he would oppose President Bush's guest worker program. Even with all that, Mr. Campbell's 45% win represented a lower percentage of the vote than the 46% he had won in a "jungle" primary in a field of 19 candidates last October (the number was whittled down to five for yesterday's runoff). Mr. Gilchrest's percentage increased to 25% from the 15% he got in the October primary. The Democratic candidate won 27% in yesterday's runoff. Columnist Robert Novak reported last week that GOP House leaders had determined "a strong showing by Gilchrist -- anything above 20 to 25 percent -- [would be] bad news for the future of Bush's immigration plan." One House member told me that with the perception that Mr. Gilchrist outperformed expectations, "members will be spooked at the thought of primary challengers or third-party candidates draining votes from them with an immigrant-bashing platform." Despite the fact that enforcement and a guest-worker program should go hand in hand, Mr. Bush's proposal is probably doomed in the House for this session of Congress. "

This was posted: http://www.flashreport.org/blog0a.php?postID=2005120617534078&post_offsetP=0&authID=2005110112091707

"As my wife and I were driving to The Claremont Institute's Winston Churchill Dinner honoring columnist Mark Steyn this past Friday, we listened to John & Ken on KFI-AM.

J & K were expressing their frustration that state Sen. John Campbell would not be attending their 48th CD special election forum that was held last night. [Full disclosure time: I was a consultant on John Campbell's first campaign for Assembly in 2000, and I would vote for him today if I still lived in that district]

I like listening to John & Ken as much as the next conservative. I don't share their near-obsession with illegal immigration, but they do a public service in keeping the issue on the political front-burner.

At the same time, they are so far in the tank for Jim Gilchrist that I suspect that John Kobylt, especially, will say anything to further Gilchrist's candidacy.

For example, this past Friday, Kobylt was telling listeners there were two Republicans on the ballot, Campbell and Gilchrist -- which is a lie. Kobylt admitted that Gilchrist was the American Independent Party nominee, but maintained Gilchrist was only running as the AIP candidate as a convenience and spoke as if Gilchrist's AIP membership was an accident of some kind. Which is also demonstrably untrue. Gilchrist left the Republican Party and joined the AIP of his own free will, and has been an AIP member for years. He has had every opportunity during those years to re-join the GOP, and declined to do so. It wasn't until Gilchrist decided to run for Congress that he began trying to convince people he was a crypto-Republican.

Kobylt knows all this. Yet he exploits listeners' trust by falsely telling them Gilchrist is a Republican, and knowing full well he is lying to his listeners. Coming from a guy who prides himself on his immunity to lies from politicians and their mouthpieces, it's interesting to listen to Kobylt lie to his listeners.

John & Ken have a vast listenership and significant political influence. I have know doubt their efforts on behalf of Gilchrist will increase his vote total today -- although he will still end up being crushed by Campbell.

And speaking of John Campbell, he was absolutely correct not to attend John & Ken's forum. Why should he have? He had long ago committed to doing Hugh Hewitt's radio program -- to which Gilchrist was also invited. After his bizarre performance on Hewitt's radio program last month, I don't blame Gilchrist for not going on with Campbell.

John & Ken bent over backwards to offer Campbell every means to participate in both programs. Politically speaking, what would John Campbell have gained by appearing in J & K's forum? He's going to destroy Gilchrist at the polls. In fact, given the enormous percentage of votes that will be cast by absentee, the election was already decided. So what does he have to gain by appearing in a hostile radio forum in front of a hostile crowd with two hostile debate "moderators" who have been bashing him on the air and urging their listeners to vote against him? John & Ken practically held Gilchrist's hand during the October Campbell-Gilchrist debate they broadcast -- and that was before they declared war on Campbell.

John & Ken's Political Human Sacrifice exacted a terrible political toll from Congressman David Dreier, but today's special election in the 48th CD is going to demonstrate the limits of their influence.

UPDATE: I'm listening to J & K as I type. They are, of course, bashing away at Campbell and Hugh Hewitt. It's amazing how quickly they turned against John Campbell. Until several weeks ago, they spoke very highly of Campbell. Now, all of a sudden, Campbell is an "open borders" phoney who has been "co-opted" and is the next target of their Political Human Sacrifice.

What does that say about John & Ken? Were the Un-Dupable Duo duped by Campbell? Or is this just an instance where they have decided to flay a politician because he refuses to kow-tow to them?

Either way, their Golden Boy is going to be crushed today -- a fact J & K are barely acknowldging even at this moment. Ken was just speaking hopefully of the fact that there are 8,000 AIP voters in the 48th CD. Wow -- that will sure make the difference.

Perhaps John & Ken will own up to the fact that they have endorsed a candidate who has proven to be an embarassment -- but not likely."

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