You need to break out the votes according to the mailed in ballots VS the show up at the poll ballots.
Gilchrist, and amateur, totally dropped the ball on this. Most of the Campbell votes were mailed in absentee ballots. Campbell, the pro, understood how hard it is to get folks to actually come to the polls for a special election. Every republican in his district received mail in ballots, with his spiel and so on.
Gilchrist might not have one even if he had matched Campbell in this crucial area, but he would have been close. Just look at the figures for the votes actually taken at the polling places, vice the absentee ballots.
One = won
Absentee On Election Day Total Votes --------------- --------------- --------------- Votes Percent Votes Percent Votes Percent ----- ------- ----- ------- ----- ------- John Campbell (Rep) 30895 53.18% 10555 30.47% 41450 44.70% Jim Gilchrist (AI) 10944 18.84% 12293 35.49% 23237 25.10% Steve Young (Dem) 14697 25.30% 11229 32.42% 25926 28.00% Béa Tiritilli (Grn) 915 1.58% 327 0.94% 1242 1.30% Bruce Cohen (Lib) 644 1.10% 236 0.68% 880 0.90% 58095 100.00% 34640 100.00% 92735 100.00%
So, messing up on something as simple as "absentee ballots" made Gilchrist qualified for Congress how, exactly? If you lived in the 48th District, you could not have missed all the free airtime on wacko talk-radio and Gilchrist signs sprouting up everywhere - until this past weekend, he was leading in those areas by a long-shot - I think Hugh is correct that 10% is all you can count on for "sealing the borders."