Posted on 12/07/2005 7:56:36 AM PST by Checkers
...What to conclude? Despite massive media attention and around-the-clock boosterism from local radio flaks and know-nothings John & Ken, the candidacy of anti-illegal immigration single issue candidate Jim Gilchrist could only muster 23,237 votes --less than one third of the Graham vote in November of 2004. No "Minuteman" candidate will ever have more favorable conditions than this special election, and still the Minuteman candidate failed miserably. As will a Congressman Tancredo if he mounts a "run" for the presidency.
Hard truth: There is a small, but important anti-illegal immigrant vote. It is less than 10% in one of the most conservative Congressional districts in the country. (Gilchrist tallied less than 10% of the 2004 general election total vote of more than 290,000, even though his highly motivated, single-issue constituency was well-informed and mobilized for the special election. If that's the best this constituency could do in the best of circumstances, it isn't a "movement," it is rather a small, but important "constituency," but not an electorally decisive one.)
The key conclusions: John Campbell will be a Congressman for as long as he chooses to be (30 years?), and other GOP incumbents will study these results very closely and recognize that while there is a 5-to-10% that must be reassured on the security of the border, there is no national tide running that demands an exclusve and relentless focus on illegal immigration.
The twelve words are still the message:
Win the war. Confirm the judges. Cut the taxes. Control the spending.
(Excerpt) Read more at hughhewitt.com ...
Note the MSM is barely reporting it and when the Nov elections were won and the Dems RETAINED their seats the MSM were shouting about it and telling US it was a preview of what was to come in 06/08.
SIlence now from DEM.
I don't no about that. In the end I thought the reason GWB got re-elected in 04 was the issue of National Security. America felt safer with Pres. Bush.
no=know
That's simple. There was a Democrat in the race, and Republicans were afraid of a split vote leading to a plurality for the Democrat. Just like the Recall election that elected the RINO who recently appointed a Lesbian Communist to be his Chief of Staff!.
Mr. Campbell faces his rather short term in office with this onus on him: if he votes for an amnesty, or any other illegal alien giveaway, he will face a very visible hard line anti-illegal alien candidate in the next Primary - where no one will have to worry about splitting thier vote and electing a Democrat.
This, BTW, is the reason Mr. Kolbe of Tucson has now retired and is heading to Rump Ranger Heaven (commonly known as the Congress Hotel in Tucson, for those of you considering that lifestyle), and the seat will now be Randy Graf's seat to lose.
Mr. Gilchrist just took away tens of thousands of votes from a generic Republican in the most Republican of Districts in the country, forcing the Annointed One to win on a plurality (in some places, you can't do that - it would force another runoff). That alone is a political earthquake that is already causing headaches in DC, no matter what happy face they want to put on it.
Or ridiculous gloating as the lightweight and enchephalo-oxygenated Hugh Hewitt is engaging in.
I wonder if there was mecha intimidation at the polls.
"Seems to me that 25% is a respectable performance for a first-time candidate from an unknown political party."
Gilchrist got 25% of an extremely low turnout, with maximum mobilization of his base, plus endless boosterism from the highest-rated drive-time radio talk show in Orange County. In other words, he got as many votes as he was going to get.
Had the turnout been as much as the 2004 election (290,000), he would've gotten 8%.
Either that, or most of them realized that Gilchrist was a one issue noisemaker who had absolutely nothing else to offer...
Hey, Hugh: By that standard you should be saying that Campbell got 17.5% of the republican vote. Will you?
In my district Ken Bentsen "was a friend of ours", then we got wrung with Chris Bell, but then lo and behold, he got the Hammer and now we've got a solid man who understands it's a war on the border and we aren't fighting it, John Culberson.
I hate to say this, but this border war that isn't is going to be George Bush's version of Bill Clinton's refusal to face off with al-Queda. It may be before he gets out of office, it may be after, but sometime we're going to get blasted from SOTB, and it's all going to blow back on him and his legacy, the legacy of the presidents who failed to protect America in her time of crisis.
I'm way too close to the front lines of this war for my comfort and good nights sleep.
Correct.
It's hilarious to watch those who support them try to justify it though. To hear his supporters talk, you would have thought Gilchrist was the second coming of Ronald Reagan, even though he had absolutely no record on which to judge him by except on immigration. Campbell was a RINO, Gilchrist was the ONLY conservative choice blah blah blah.
It really made me laugh. They were just like Kerry supporters after November 2004, I BELLLIIIEEEVVVEEEE that Kerry will be sworn in come January, I BELLLLIIIIEEEVVVVEEE.
But instead, they BELLLLIIIEEEVVEEEEDDD that Gilchrist would be the best, most conservative congressman.
Funny stuff.
Those are the figures I've seen. Not a bad result for a political novice, I'd say.
"Why did Gilchrist lose if the issue of anti-immigration was that dominant in this special election?"
all you have to do is look at the geography;
the 48th District(80% white/asian and 15% Hispanic) is not affected by the illegals.
in fact the white folks depend on the illegals to cut their grass, clean their toilets, wash their cars and work in the restaurants...
so the majority could reeeeeely care less about the illegals. they WANT them here!
"So maybe the "10%" of anti-illegal immigration voters that will write in Tancredo in 2008 no matter what will be missed when Hillary beats the GOP candidate by a few percent? We'll see."
Just like they promised to do last year, too.
The only people stupid enough to do that are the ones in West Palm Beach, Florida, and they think they voted for Pat Buchanan in 2000.
In a 25% v 45%, 45% looks like a winner.
I think most of the Gilchrist vote, if not all of it, was a form of protest. I certainly would have voted for him, if I lived in the district, but only as a way of sending a message to the republicans regarding my opposition to illegal immigration. I've heard him speak, and was not impressed.
John Campbell, on the other hand, is a very accomplished politician, is good on other conservative issues and is well regarded by the national party. If he goes to Washington with a little of the fear of God in him about this issue, that won't be a bad outcome.
yep
Funny stuff.
oh yeah...we're really laughing hard here in So CA after 86 hospital closings and people dying in emergencies which EMTs try and figure out which emergency room isn't swamped by illegals demanding free care... the "Albino Rino" Hugh is really out to lunch and will continue to kiss the ring of his masters. what a sick goof!
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