Delay won by 10% last time. But assuming Delay runs again, he will either beat the rap, or be convicted. If he is convicted, he won't run again. So the Dems won't have a chance to run against a Delay twisting slowly in the legal wind, unless the Abramoff scandal bites at his heels.
My best guess is that the race will be tossup.
It's going to take quite some more dirt against DeLay to threaten his chances for re-election in the 22nd district. So far, back here, it's playing that this is a political trick by Ronnie Earle and the Rats, despite the best efforts of the Houston Chronicle.
DeLay is in a bit of trouble. Moderates and those who aren't informed are troubled. My take on it is that it's manageable.