Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: liliesgrandpa
The odds against this happening in at least 239 protein molecules to form the smallest living organism are 1029345.

That's way less that the odds of shuffled deck of cards coming up in their exact order and you can shuffle a deck of cards all day long.

58 posted on 12/05/2005 6:38:20 AM PST by shuckmaster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies ]


To: shuckmaster
... the odds of shuffled deck of cards ...

Each shuffle of a deck of cards has an outcome which is one in 52! (That's 52 factorial, which is 8.06581752 × 1067.) It's a huge number. For comparison, the estimated number of stars in the universe is "only" 1021. Source: this NASA website.

So the odds against any particular card shuffle are truly beyond astronomical. Yet, if you go ahead and shuffle a deck ... ta-DA! There it is. You've obtained a virtually impossible outcome. Similarly, the odds against the history of England being what it has been are probably even greater (I wouldn't even guess at how to quantify that).

The point is that computing the odds against such things doesn't do much for you -- especially when you're dealing with events that have already happened, when the events have become a 100% certainty. I've labeled this kind of thinking the fallacy of retrospective astonishment. It applies to the existence of each of us, when you consider the odds against each specific conception for each of your ancestors. And it also applies to the development of the presently-existing biosphere on Earth.

One can, if so inclined, see the hand of Providence in each such outcome. Or not (as each step along the way is a natural event). There's no scientific answer to such speculations. But there's always Occam's Razor.

Yet here we are. Just like a shuffle of a deck of cards. We're highly improbable. If it were to start all over again, some other shuffle of the cards would take our place. We're unique. Never to be repeated. Irreplaceable. Priceless.

66 posted on 12/05/2005 6:42:36 AM PST by PatrickHenry (Virtual Ignore for trolls, lunatics, dotards, common scolds, & incurable ignoramuses.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 58 | View Replies ]

To: shuckmaster
The odds of getting a bridge hand with all 13 cards the same suit is very small, small to the point where it is unlikely that this has ever happened by chance in tournament bridge. Such hands have been claimed to have happened by chance, but each time, it turned out to be a prank or fraud.

This is the problem with the origin of life: You can shuffle those amino acids all day long, but whether you get a structure that fulfills the functions of a living organism is another matter entirely.

170 posted on 12/05/2005 9:22:41 AM PST by megatherium (Hecho in China)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 58 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson