Given Bush's accomplishments in nearly 5 years.....strong economy......defending America from the terrorist enemy.....low unemployment.....record home ownership.....
I believe Bush would soundly beat Gore if there was an election in 2 weeks!!
That's the problem with projecting elections based on one guy's approval ratings -- he is, in effect, running against himself.
But, once you gave the voters a choice and identified Bush's opponent as Algore!!!, you could sit and watch the polls grow like corn in Iowa in August.