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My brother-in-law is a 'farmer' with a master's degree in agriculture. He has assured me for years that there is nothing farmers would like more than a mechanical alternative to having real people harvest their crops. And they have it in a lot crops, like soybeans, cotton, etc. But when it comes to relatively delicate crops like tomatoes and strawberries there simply isn't an alternative. He points out that using robotics for things like making cars is pretty sensitive since the robotic device is doing EXACTLY the same thing, in the same place over and over and over. Even then, they manage to screw up and mess up a production run. There is no comparison between the controlled environment of an auto plant production floor and an open field of tomatoes in Florida or California.

The truth is we really don't know what effect drying up the supply of illegal labor would have on the various industries that are dependent on it. Even if you could find citizens willing to work for the relatively low wages of picking crops and willing to move from state to state several times a year, there are probably not enough of them to do the job.

The way to find out is to clamp down on the supply and see what happens. It probably won't be as bad, or as good, as either side predicts.

"The way to find out is to clamp down on the supply and see what happens. It probably won't be as bad, or as good, as either side predicts."

One side effect that would be likely to happen is trigger a massive (and overdue) meltdown of the California real estate market, as some of the big REITs own many acres of farmland.

My brother-in-law is a 'farmer' with a master's degree in agriculture. ... But when it comes to relatively delicate crops like tomatoes and strawberries there simply isn't an alternative.

Tomato farming is very automated and has been since the 60's when we ended the Bracero program. When we got rid of the cheap labor productivity and production went way up and the price dropped.

I don't know much about strawberries but grapes and raisins are among the most (illegal) labor intense crops farmed in California. And the farmers who raise grapes for wine and raisins are among the biggest whiners about the need for illegal labor. But in Australia where they don't have a ready source of cheap labor, they manage to make wine that is cheaper and as often as not better quality than ours that does not rely on labor intensive methods. They do the same with raisins. Despite all the whining, it turns out that automation is totally feasible.

Necessity is the mother of invention. I bet after we get rid of the illegals somebody figures out how to pick strawberries with a machine just like the Southerners figured out how to automate the cotton harvest when we got rid of the slaves. Otherwise strawberries will get more expensive. That won't be the end of the wold when we figure in all the money we will save by not having to subsidize the cheap labor.