The inability to back our candidates, financially (the Democrats claim Republicans are the party of the rich, though somehow that money never makes it into campaign coffers in any great quantity) and with footsoldiers, coupled with the backstabbing of our candidates after we come out of a primary (e.g., Bill Simon via Gerry Parsky et al.)
Getting back to numbers, in the 2004 primary, actual registered Republicans are 5,364,832 vs 6,518,631 for the Democrats. In 1930 R's were more than 3-1 over D's, but in four years of depression and the emergence of FDR, by 1934 we trailed slightly and have never recovered.
For how many actual conservatives there are, that's hard to pin down. There are your more activist conservative Republicans, and you'll see them on central committees, walking precincts, etc.
Then you have your passive Republicans, those that may or may not show up at a poll for whatever reason. They don't follow the news that close, so they tend to get sucked in by campaign advertisement lies and fearmongering, or throw their arms up in the air and think it's all futile, those are the ones that are frustrating to get out to the polls. They may have just checked the box on the voter registration forms that felt somewhat close to their general views, or chose the "R" because their parents did, but they don't have the political knowledge and passion to try to stop the damage that the far left is inflicting. These type of Republicans don't post on message boards such as FR.
Then there are the leftists masquerading as Republicans in hoping to infiltrate and cause mischief within our ranks. Single-issue fringe groups like Republicans For Choice or the Log Cabin Republicans will fall into this group. They'll also get onto central committees and such. They want to tilt this nation politically to the left and if they can capture both major parties, it's over.
Independents are at 20% and climbing because they are frustrated with not having any confidence in the major parties, particularly the Republicans (shouts of "not a dimesworth of difference" can be heard from the rooftops). If they can't latch onto the Republican Party as a tool to stop the extremism of the Democrats, then we have failed as the alternative to the leftist agenda.
Seems pretty bleak, no? And that's why there's so much dissention on these boards, in my opinion...we're all in one of those camps and all those camps are losing the battle to the other side. It does seem so futile...I guess that shows you the camp I'm in at the moment.