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To: elfman2

One could also argue that the increase in new home sales is the result of the big building companies dumping in anticipation of price decreases. I am not sure that volume numbers can be interpreted as positive or negative for the market without other evidence.

In the long term, if housing prices continue to rise at a much higher pace than after-tax incomes, then it seems that the marginal buyer will be priced out of the market, which doesn't bode well for further housing price increases.


20 posted on 11/29/2005 7:24:10 AM PST by Thane_Banquo ("Give a man a fish, make him a Democrat. Teach a man to fish, make him a Republican.")
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To: Thane_Banquo
"One could also argue that the increase in new home sales is the result of the big building companies dumping in anticipation of price decreases. "

I assume that’s viewed a bad news, but it also implies future shortfalls in supply as homes scheduled to sell next year are already sold. And prices generally held even through the accelerated dumping.

Generals always fight the last war. Same goes for investors and reporters. Market crashes were predicted for 20 years until no one believed them, and the tech bubble resulted. Now real estate is rising, and the same group is referencing the tech bubble model to predict the future. Because so many people are predicting a housing bubble burst, there will not be one. Excess air is being let out every day. The market is managing it.

33 posted on 11/29/2005 8:00:03 AM PST by elfman2
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