Watch out. NH supported him over Bush in 2000.
Yes. But remember that W was supposed to be a weak candidate and even his own brother (hard to forgive Jeb for that) commented that he didn't think that W was ready to be President.
Also, I do see that NH is no longer the bellwether of mainstream America. It's a different place than it was 20 years ago.
I don't think McCain won any states in 2000 where the primary was restricted to the actual members of the party in question. He would have the same problem in 2008, only more so--he might win some primaries with the help of Democrats and Independents, but would have no chance in the closed-primary states.