[silverleaf]

Human to human transmission of avian flu has occurred, as much as a year ago. I think case was confirmed as such in Vietnam.

If you read official pronouncments carefully you will see a bit of weasel wording about this. Being kept low key.

[Judith Anne]

Human to human transmission of avian flu has occurred, as much as a year ago. I think case was confirmed as such in Vietnam.

First, it was said that h2h transmission was the tipping point. Then, when THAT happened in VN, it was said that sustained h2h transmission would be the tipping point.

It looks like we might have sustained h2h transmission.

Next bar will likely be "when sustained h2h transmission occurs beyond two levels, i.e. h2h2h transmission." I bet that has happened.

Elsewhere, it was said, "When medical workers start dying of it," or "When case numbers are in the dozens" or "when whole towns are sealed off" or "when thousands are put in isolation," etc.

I think the tipping point has been reached, and since this article is from the 20th of November, I suspect that it was reached some time ago. The events in this article took place BEFORE the 20th of November--weeks before.

What is the likelihood that somebody carrying H5N1 in pandemic form has left Asia? Pretty high, I'd bet. It only took one doctor on an airplane trip to spread SARS to over 30 countries in a VERY short time...and influenza spreads a lot faster than SARS did...

[Yaelle]

Yes, and human-to-human transmission was shown in the BBC documentary film of September. A doctor and a medical worker both became infected. Perhaps that was Viet Nam; I don't remember.

The article from China linked above by Judith Anne mentioned that several STUDENTS had gotten ill. That sounds like human-to-human, close contact living, rather than exposure to chickens on the farm. Scary.