Sounds like a perfect tradition to start up. Here is a pic I took. Feel free to add more...
Posted on 11/28/2005 12:03:37 AM PST by killjoy
Countdown is on: Will December 9 bring a wind of political change, or the end of the road for critic’s bandwagon?
The countdown is on to the clash of the titans. Come December 9 the series of ongoing rows between two former best friends – Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and media tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul – is expected to reach boiling point.
With both sides having so much at stake, many believe that the climax may reshape Thai politics. The question is, if the head-on collision is really inevitable, to what extent it will it be reshaped.
Sondhi, in his last “Thailand Weekly” forum, which has now turned into a major political rally, called for Thais to show up in their “five hundred thousands” in his planned gathering next Friday. And political observers believe such numbers are not just meant as a show of force, when a crowd that huge comes together, a major wind of political change will blow.
The government could opt for a variety of strategies.
The first would be to keep calm and let Sondhi exhaust himself. But this is looking less appealing as Sondhi seems to have new ammunition each week and doesn’t appear to be running out of ideas for attracting people to his campaign.
As a sign that he won’t let this become a one-way fight, Thaksin has set up a response team led by Deputy Transport Minister Phumtham Wechayachai who will be aided by the Thai Rak Thai Party’s spokespersons. Some of them are former “October” activists involved in the big political upheavals in the 1970s who should know better than most what this kind of situation can lead to and how to cope with it.
However, a number of advisers are said to be against an eye-for-an-eye response, which could draw more public sympathy for Sondhi who is already seen as a hero by many.
But at a time when good national news is hard to come by, the government can expect little gain from opting to divert attention and sympathy for the veteran. Unless some “accidents” or “situations” occur that could drum up nationalistic sentiment in Thaksin’s favour, the general public’s feelings are unlikely to change.
One possible alternative is to discredit Sondhi, making it look like the attack has comes from a third party.
The two friends-turned-foes are believed to share some damaging secrets, which means information that could destroy one could also seriously harm the other. This strategy would have to be carried out with great discretion, with the aim of convincing the public that Sondhi is motivated by personal reasons or vengeance, otherwise it could boomerang on the prime minister.
It seems what is at stake now for Sondhi is his credibility, whether or not his business interests drove him to turn against Thaksin in the first place. At stake for Thaksin however, are both his political and business empires whose interests have become so intertwined.
It will be Sondhi going for broke. If 500,000 show up on December 9, Thaksin’s political clout will be all but shattered. As far as the prime minister is concerned, if this happens, the “good scenario” would be that the crowd demand a new constitution to tone down his power and domination. This is something Thaksin should gladly agree to.
But if such a mammoth crowd wants something more than that, Thaksin will have far less pleasant options.
Violence is one, but history shows that no government that opts for this route can survive. To protect his huge business interests, Thaksin may have to ponder the previously unthinkable – resignation or House dissolution.
As for Sondhi, his nightmare scenario would be far fewer people, perhaps just tens of thousands, turning up. This would affect the “legitimacy” of any demands he plans to make or action he plans to take. He will have to stay encamped at Lumpini, but his “magic” is likely to have all but disappeared three weeks later when the New Year’s festive mood sets in.
“The situation has not yet ripened,” said Gothom Arya, a member of the National Reconciliation Commission.
“An uprising requires explosive factors like extreme oppression or big threats to freedom and liberty. Those factors are there, but not yet developed to the points that they were during October 1974.”
Many political pundits still haven’t ruled out the possibility of the two equally shrewd men striking a behind-the-scenes deal. These analysts believe that Sondhi’s campaign was partly, if not largely, motivated by business interests, and if so the whole episode could come to an end at the same point as it allegedly began.
This scenario, however, is disputed by those who believe that Sondhi has come too far now to turn back. If the media tycoon’s TV projects suddenly got back on track, for example, he would find it difficult to face society’s keen glare.
Yet there are those who think that Sondhi never expected things to come this far and is in fact looking for a “peaceful” way out. If that is the case, whether or not he will be able to “get off the tiger’s back” and how he to do so will provide an interesting case study for years to come.
Toxin has a habbit of suing his opponents to shut them up. In this case, it has backfired and has caused Sondhi to go into full attack mode. He has been dishing dirt on Toxin during his weekly show and this has caused all sorts of problems. What was a minor spat has turned into a major crisis now involving the military threatening people.
It appears Toxin and his political party, TRT, are losing more and more support on a daily basis. The King's birthday is next week and it is going to be interesting to see if he says anything about this in his speech to the nation. Personally, I think the only way this is going to end without bloodshed is with intervention from the Royal Family... and I doubt they are going to be supporting Toxin.
what is Nai Sondhi's position on the moslem situation?
;^)
Mr. Taksin Shinawatra , the Prime Minister of Thailand
LOL! Good one.
It depends on if my GF has any say in it or not. If it is up to her, I will be sitting in my condo watching everything on TV. If it is up to me, I will be riding along in a Police Aviation helicopter watching it live. Women are so boring...
bump
<< Oh crap, you live in Thailand, what will you do when the crap hits the fan? >>
Sawasdee khrap.
Same as he does in every sentence, khrap.
And in every hello, krap.
And in every thank you, krap.
And in every goodbye, khrap.
Khap khun khrap.
Sawasdee khrap.
I assume whoever wins, the Royal family will remain the Royal family?
Of course. Saying anything even remotely negative about the Royals is a sure way to get yourself into deep trouble very fast, if not killed.
Actually the Royal Family is a big part of the current controversy. Toxin led a ceremony at Wat Phra Kaew, the Temple of the Emerald Buddha. This is the holiest site in Thailand and only members of the Royal Family are allowed to do so. Sondhi was the one who made this public in his attack against the Prime Minister. Toxin's spokesperson countered by saying it was done with Royal permission... although the photo of the ceremony that Sondhi released shows Toxin wearing his shoes inside the temple. A definite no-no.
Since this was made public, both sides have been accused of politicizing the King which has not gone over well. This prompted the Commander of the 1st Cavalry, King's Bodyguard, to publically threaten Sondhi a few weeks ago and making a bad situation even worse.
It is a shame we have a Thailand posting without the requisite Thai babe pics...
I have never seen a Thai babe picture on FR . How would it be a requisite ?
Sounds like a perfect tradition to start up. Here is a pic I took. Feel free to add more...
I have a few of the photos of the ceremony saved on my computer somewhere. I am about to head out of town for a few days but will try to find them when I get back.
Now if I had had females that looked like that in my unit, I'd rethink my opposition to females in sex integrated units.
I have more pictures but you will have to wait for another Thai thread. ;)
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