Political dash follows Kolbe exit

Once you get there, you stay there. That could well be the one timeless truth about Congress. For the 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives, re-election is one of life's certainties. The possibility of a lifetime job - a job with no shortage of power, perks and prestige - also explains much about the mad dash that began Wednesday, with the unexpected announcement by Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe that he will not run for a 12th term in 2006. "These opportunities don't happen everyday," said Rep. Raúl Grijalva, a Tucson Democrat. Open congressional seats are indeed among the rarest of political finds, with only a handful coming up for grabs every two years. When they occur, it doesn't take long for a crowd of eager congressional hopefuls to start scrambling. And that is exactly what happened after Kolbe's Thanksgiving surprise. The congressman's disclosure that the time had come to "hang up the spurs" reverberated through Southern Arizona like the shot of a starting gun for a political marathon. The race will not only dominate public-policy discussions throughout the New Hampshire-sized 8th Congressional District over the coming year, but likely will be the focus of national attention as Republicans and Democrats mount an all-out effort for control of Congress in 2006. "This probably will be one of the most contested House seats in the United States," said Jim Click, the Tucson auto dealer whose White House connections and prodigious fund-raising on behalf of GOP candidates have made him one of Arizona's most influential Republicans. "The Democrats would love to have this seat and I know the Republicans are going to do everything they can to keep it," Click said. Adding further prominence to the race is the newfound national attention heaped on two issues that have long been key concerns in the 8th district: immigration and border security. President Bush will discuss both during a Tucson visit Monday. "This is not a border issue anymore," said Chris Simcox, president of the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps and one of Kolbe's harshest critics. "It's an American issue." Kolbe himself foresees fierce competition for the post he first won in 1984, the same year President Ronald Reagan secured a second term. "It's a competitive district," he said. "It's going to be a very tough district, I think, for another Republican to hold on to, but it doesn't mean it can't be." For this very reason, Kolbe added, House Speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois and Rep. John Shadegg of Phoenix, a top member of the House Republican leadership, were disappointed with his decision to retire. "I think the speaker would very much like to relieve a headache (for) himself of how this district is going to go and would like to have me stay," Kolbe said. Mike Hellon, a former chairman of the Arizona Republican Party and a longtime Kolbe confidant, speculated that the lure of an open seat and the heady prospect of holding on to it for years are compelling factors. "This is the last time in a decade you'll see an open seat" in Arizona, said Hellon, who is himself contemplating entering the race. And "whoever has it will likely hold on to it until at least the next redistricting," which is expected to take place after the 2010 census. Over the last dozen years, the re-election rate for U.S. House members has not dipped below 90 percent. The lowest it has been since 1964 was 85 percent. Arizona is no exception. The state has had 29 members of the House of Representatives since statehood in 1912. Only five lost bids for re-election. Among them was Democrat Jim McNulty, a Tucson lawyer who was elected in 1982 to the newly created 5th Congressional District. His bid to win a second term in 1984 was dashed by Kolbe. The 5th District, which included most of Tucson, the eastern half of Pima County and all of Cochise County, became the current 8th District after the 2000 census. Bush carried the 8th with 53 percent of the vote in 2004 and 50 percent in 2000. Although district Republicans have a slight edge in voter registration, Democrats believe they have a good shot at capturing it. Paul Eckerstrom, chairman of the Pima County Democratic Party, believes the national mood - including concern about Iraq and corruption in Washington - could play a decisive role, as it might have in this month's Tucson City Council election, in which two Republican incumbents lost to Democratic challengers. "It's going to be a battle grand," Eckerstrom said. "This district will be a focus of national attention." The council contest, Click said, should be "a wake-up call" for the GOP. Regardless of affiliation, he said victory will likely go to the party that can field a good candidate, raise the money necessary to bring their message before voters, and wage "a good ground game." The parties pick their candidates in what is sure to be a hard-fought primary on both sides of the aisle next Sept. 12. District voters decide who succeeds Kolbe on Nov. 7. Between now and then, Grijalva said, "it will be a free-for-all." Among the more prominent possible contenders are Democratic state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords and Republican Pima County Supervisor Ray Carroll. These veteran officeholders already benefit from high name recognition and track records as proven vote-getters. But both are relative newcomers to the contest compared to Randy Graf and Eva Bacal. Graf is a conservative former state lawmaker who challenged Kolbe for the GOP nomination last year. Hardly skipping a beat, Graf's losing 2004 effort easily morphed into his 2006 campaign. Bacal was the Democrat who faced Kolbe in last November's general election. She is thinking about running again, as is Tim Sultan, whom she defeated in last year's Democratic primary. Jeff Latas became the first Democrat to file as a candidate with the Federal Election Commission earlier this month, before Kolbe announced his retirement. A former U.S. Air Force pilot, Latas conceded last week that he needs to work hard to boost his profile, but said his early entry into the race gives him an edge over the competition. "They were too scared to take on Kolbe," he said. "My campaign was not." Other possible Democratic candidates include state Rep. Ted Downing and Fred DuVal, a former deputy assistant to President Bill Clinton. Other Republicans include state Rep. Steve Huffman and former City Council candidate Mike Jenkins. Definitely not on the list is Click. "Absolutely not," he said. "If I did that I'd have to go to work. It's like my dad always said, find something you love to do and retire for the rest of your life, and I love the car business."

This time with formating

Once you get there, you stay there.

That could well be the one timeless truth about Congress. For the 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives, re-election is one of life's certainties.

The possibility of a lifetime job - a job with no shortage of power, perks and prestige - also explains much about the mad dash that began Wednesday, with the unexpected announcement by Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe that he will not run for a 12th term in 2006.

"These opportunities don't happen everyday," said Rep. Raúl Grijalva, a Tucson Democrat.

Open congressional seats are indeed among the rarest of political finds, with only a handful coming up for grabs every two years. When they occur, it doesn't take long for a crowd of eager congressional hopefuls to start scrambling.

And that is exactly what happened after Kolbe's Thanksgiving surprise. The congressman's disclosure that the time had come to "hang up the spurs" reverberated through Southern Arizona like the shot of a starting gun for a political marathon.

The race will not only dominate public-policy discussions throughout the New Hampshire-sized 8th Congressional District over the coming year, but likely will be the focus of national attention as Republicans and Democrats mount an all-out effort for control of Congress in 2006.
"This probably will be one of the most contested House seats in the United States," said Jim Click, the Tucson auto dealer whose White House connections and prodigious fund-raising on behalf of GOP candidates have made him one of Arizona's most influential Republicans.

"The Democrats would love to have this seat and I know the Republicans are going to do everything they can to keep it," Click said.

Adding further prominence to the race is the newfound national attention heaped on two issues that have long been key concerns in the 8th district: immigration and border security. President Bush will discuss both during a Tucson visit Monday.

"This is not a border issue anymore," said Chris Simcox, president of the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps and one of Kolbe's harshest critics. "It's an American issue."

Kolbe himself foresees fierce competition for the post he first won in 1984, the same year President Ronald Reagan secured a second term. "It's a competitive district," he said. "It's going to be a very tough district, I think, for another Republican to hold on to, but it doesn't mean it can't be."

For this very reason, Kolbe added, House Speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois and Rep. John Shadegg of Phoenix, a top member of the House Republican leadership, were disappointed with his decision to retire.

"I think the speaker would very much like to relieve a headache (for) himself of how this district is going to go and would like to have me stay," Kolbe said.

Mike Hellon, a former chairman of the Arizona Republican Party and a longtime Kolbe confidant, speculated that the lure of an open seat and the heady prospect of holding on to it for years are compelling factors.

"This is the last time in a decade you'll see an open seat" in Arizona, said Hellon, who is himself contemplating entering the race. And "whoever has it will likely hold on to it until at least the next redistricting," which is expected to take place after the 2010 census.

Over the last dozen years, the re-election rate for U.S. House members has not dipped below 90 percent. The lowest it has been since 1964 was 85 percent.

Arizona is no exception. The state has had 29 members of the House of Representatives since statehood in 1912. Only five lost bids for re-election. Among them was Democrat Jim McNulty, a Tucson lawyer who was elected in 1982 to the newly created 5th Congressional District. His bid to win a second term in 1984 was dashed by Kolbe.

The 5th District, which included most of Tucson, the eastern half of Pima County and all of Cochise County, became the current 8th District after the 2000 census. Bush carried the 8th with 53 percent of the vote in 2004 and 50 percent in 2000.

Although district Republicans have a slight edge in voter registration, Democrats believe they have a good shot at capturing it. Paul Eckerstrom, chairman of the Pima County Democratic Party, believes the national mood - including concern about Iraq and corruption in Washington - could play a decisive role, as it might have in this month's Tucson City Council election, in which two Republican incumbents lost to Democratic challengers.

"It's going to be a battle grand," Eckerstrom said. "This district will be a focus of national attention."
The council contest, Click said, should be "a wake-up call" for the GOP. Regardless of affiliation, he said victory will likely go to the party that can field a good candidate, raise the money necessary to bring their message before voters, and wage "a good ground game."
The parties pick their candidates in what is sure to be a hard-fought primary on both sides of the aisle next Sept. 12. District voters decide who succeeds Kolbe on Nov. 7. Between now and then, Grijalva said, "it will be a free-for-all."

Among the more prominent possible contenders are Democratic state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords and Republican Pima County Supervisor Ray Carroll. These veteran officeholders already benefit from high name recognition and track records as proven vote-getters.

But both are relative newcomers to the contest compared to Randy Graf and Eva Bacal. Graf is a conservative former state lawmaker who challenged Kolbe for the GOP nomination last year. Hardly skipping a beat, Graf's losing 2004 effort easily morphed into his 2006 campaign.

Bacal was the Democrat who faced Kolbe in last November's general election. She is thinking about running again, as is Tim Sultan, whom she defeated in last year's Democratic primary.

Jeff Latas became the first Democrat to file as a candidate with the Federal Election Commission earlier this month, before Kolbe announced his retirement. A former U.S. Air Force pilot, Latas conceded last week that he needs to work hard to boost his profile, but said his early entry into the race gives him an edge over the competition. "They were too scared to take on Kolbe," he said. "My campaign was not."

Other possible Democratic candidates include state Rep. Ted Downing and Fred DuVal, a former deputy assistant to President Bill Clinton.

Other Republicans include state Rep. Steve Huffman and former City Council candidate Mike Jenkins.

Definitely not on the list is Click. "Absolutely not," he said. "If I did that I'd have to go to work. It's like my dad always said, find something you love to do and retire for the rest of your life, and I love the car business."

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.