It may surprise you to know that prior to Alito at least 5 justices on the Rehnquist court have asserted the individual right theory or concurred with others who have asserted such.
I think it is probable that the SCOTUS with Alito would affirm the individual right while also affirming the power of states to regulate same. However, I think that same court would strike this particular Massachusetts law and the Supreme Court of Mass should as well based on their own Constitituion.
The above in bold is an assertion, not an argument, it seems to me. What New York thought is of some slight interest, but hardly dispositive, and certainly not controlling.