Collins and Snowe's votes are meaningless on this.
We all know the only way for the dems to block Alito is through fillabuster.
THere are only 4 republicans chafee, snowe, specter, collins who would vote against alito.
That would give the gop 51 votes and alito would be confirmed even if they all voted against alito.
The only way the dems win is to fillabuster Alito. The commercials should be targeting senators like hagel, specter, and murkowski for the nuclear option. There are five solid rino no votes for the nuclear option. Mccain, chafee, snowe, collins, and warner.
Collins and Snowe are against the nuclear option. The only way the dems can win is from fillabuster. So targeting them is a waste of money.
I doubt McCain would vote to block the nuke option on Alito. He saw what conservatives did with Miers. He knows that conservatives would turn from just not liking him to actively hating him. He wouldn't have a prayer at the nomination and he knows he can't win as an independent without being a billionaire.
They could also try to flip Specter in committee. That would give Alito a 9-9 vote in the Judiciary, killing the nomination. And Specter may even decide he's got nothing to lose - what can we do to him? Odds are he won't even survive to finish out his current Senate term, and even if he does I doubt he'll run again.
I think Specter may use the Judiciary chair to try more underhanded maneuvering first, but if he's determined to kill Alito's nomination, voting no in committee could be his final gun, and he'd probably justify it with "Miers didn't get an up-or-down vote, so Alito has no right to one himself."
The key to this nomination is Arlen Specter, any way you look at it. Nice position to be in, huh?