Posted on 11/23/2005 7:12:29 AM PST by tedbel
Whither Disengagement? Whither the Road Map? Whither Two-State Plans?
Michael L. Wise, One State Plan, March 6, 2005
Supporters of PM Sharon’s Disengagement Plan thought it was a very clever strategy. Evacuate Gaza, complete the Wall to include 5-8% of the West Bank territory and 80% of its Jewish settlement population, and then declare a Palestinian state. Sounds exciting. No more Arabs to worry about and a great opportunity for peace and prosperity. Singapore, Hong Kong, Benelux, NAFTA all Pollyannaish images. However...
A significant risk associated with all two-state plans is being ignored. PA control of any part of the West Bank will result in the arrival of 2-2.5 million Arab ”refugees” over a period of 3-5 years. The right of return of Arab refugees to Palestine is a primary demand. PM Sharon recently said that Palestinian refugees may not return to Israel but may return to the new Palestinian State.
The PA claims that there are over 9 million Palestinians worldwide. Upon declaration of a Palestinian State, many Palestinians living in poverty will migrate to Palestine: 450,000+ from Lebanon, 250,000+ from Syria, 100,000+ from Iraq, 200,000+ from Egypt, 1.5 million+ from Jordan, and 750,000+ from other locations. The opportunity to be resettled in Palestine with enormous global financial and political support will be very attractive and immediately accepted by many of those people. The EU, UN, US, Russia and others will finance the growth and economic development of Palestine. It is estimated that in the first year, 500,000 to one million Arabs will arrive and fill the hundreds of thousands of available empty rooms and homes on the West Bank. Within 3-5 years, between 2 and 2.5 million will arrive.
Recent studies (www.pademographics.com) have confirmed that today the population of the West Bank is at most 1.35 million. When the number of illegal immigrants (the anecdotal evidence is between 100,000 and 300,000 people) from the West Bank to Israel is verified, the number of Arabs currently living on the West Bank will certainly be less than 1.25 million. The ratio of Jews to the total number of Arabs in Israel and the West Bank has remained constant at 2 to 1 since 1967. No demographic threat! No demographic momentum!
Once a provisional Palestinian State is declared on the West Bank, 500,000 Arabs will be immediately and easily absorbed. As the Arab population in that Palestinian State grows, Israeli Arabs will recognize the long-term trends and the ultimate Palestinian demographic dominance of the area between the Jordan River and the Sea and they will begin to exert increasing pressure on the Israeli government. Demands for special rights, rejection of the Jewish State, and the wish to be identified with their brothers and cousins living on the other side of the Wall will mount; identification with Palestinian nationalism, flag and anthem will grow. The ongoing infiltration of illegal immigrants into Israel will expand.
A demand that Israel relinquish all territory captured through “military adventurism and aggression” will be heard throughout the world and in the UN. The green line will be identified not as an international border but solely as the 1948-1949 armistice line. No formal treaty ever recognized and no Arab entity ever accepted Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish State. No Palestinian Arab entity ever relinquished claims to its part of the 1947 partition plan, or indeed to all of “Palestine”. The international community, especially in light of the long-term claims that Israel forcefully evicted civilians from their homes in 1948, will decide to no longer recognize the acquisition of land through military conquest. Pressures will increase on Israel to cede control of parts of the Galilee and Negev to the Palestinian State.
In the face of massive Arab migration to areas west of the Jordan River, Israeli Jews will recognize the Looming Demographic Catastrophe. As they rapidly become a distinct minority, they will begin to leave Israel. Ironically, the first to leave will be the left wing pro-peace supporters who argued so strenuously for physical separation from the Arab population. It will be easy for them to justify abandoning the Zionist enterprise and to seek peaceful and prosperous lives for themselves and their families in other countries. Employment and a wide range of opportunities will be open to this educated and secure elite. As internal Arab restlessness and border violence grows, the remaining Peace-Now members will finally and belatedly demand that the PA charter be changed to accept the existence of a Jewish Zionist State. PA officials will scoff at all such requests. Indeed, no Arab group or government has ever recognized the right of Israel to exist as a Jewish state in the midst of an Arab Moslem sea. The new demographic circumstances will reinforce that position.
Disputes between the PA and the Jewish State relating to water and other resources, arms, access, employment, borders, and foreign treaties will grow and the resolve of the Jewish State to preserve its existence will weaken. Foreign investment and financial and political support for Israel will dry up.
As things go from bad to worse, Israel will be faced with a decision: capitulation or wage a full-scale war to halt and reverse the unleashed process and the demographic momentum. It is not difficult to guess what the decision will be.
Abu Mazen understands that the military option employed over the past 100 years has failed and will continue to fail. He is clever enough to understand that there are other ways to achieve the long-term objective of destroying the State of Israel. Sharon may unwittingly be playing right into his hands.
demographic catastrophe?
how about socio-economic-demographic catastrophe as a title?
I doubt these people are capable of the economic infrastructure that Israel has. More than likely it will be a guns based economy, dealing in and exporting terrorism. Perhaps some heroin from afghanistan. Without the economic infrastructure chaos will prevail.
Anyways, it will be nothing but a huge problem
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Assimilating 3 millions Arabs from Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan will be a problem. But not Israel's problem. Perhaps the Arabs would consider settling them where they live now.
Two factors not mentioned are that Israel becomes less European and more middle eastern as time goes on. Second, Israel has what many Arabs want and shows them the way to development by exaqmple.
Two factors not mentioned are that Israel becomes less European and more middle eastern as time goes on. Second, Israel has what many Arabs want and shows them the way to development by example.
Of course a Pali state will not guarantee peace or anything resembling peace. The Palis will continue to fire rockets into Israel. Another 2 million unemployed Palis will have nothing to do but raise h@ll and attack Israel. But that may give Israel the excuse they need to wage all out war against Palestine. The clock is ticking . . .
After nearly 60 years of development, none of the local Arab states have caught on yet. Nor does there seem to be any indication that Gaza will, but time will tell. You'll know it's beginning when the schools start teaching math and science instead of Jewhatred and jihad.
more likely than not, the immigrants will be impoverished jihadists.
how that go ? you cant pick your neighbours? it is unfortunate the WORLD has given Israel the problem and it will not be small.
sure Israel can set an example of civility and socio economic success, but the rest of the mideast is a backwards group of people with hundreds of years of negative inertia that they have not been successful in managing. I believe the bulk of their ongoing failure is founded in their hate driven religion.
IMO
I don't believe it for a second. For all their talk of their "homeland," Palestinians aren't going to emigrate to a hellhole where there is constant violence and no work. By and large the Pali diaspora lives in relative comfort in their new countries, exactly as the others should have done.
The only reason Pali's want a "right of return" is to go to Israel, not the West Bank, and to try to bring the Jewish State to an end.
btttrttr
They'll go where they're "sent". Currently there are about 4,000,000 refugees per UNWRA. Only about 1,500,000 live in the West Bank and Gaza, 2,500,000 live in Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon, where they haven't been integrated into the local population. Those 2,500,000 could find themselves moving whether they like it or not. Again, that after a withdrawl, that isn't Israel's problem.
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