Judgment Day? Is the end here...or near...for Zarqawi?

Is Abu Musab al Zarqawi dead? Has he finally cashed it in for the 72 maidens, going out in a blaze of gunfire and explosives at a not-so-safe house in Mosul? Some reports said yes, the White House doubts it, and investigators are combing through the rubble looking for evidence. If ever there was a time you'd wish the White House was wrong about something, this is it.

The origins of the story of Zarqawi's demise do not give one encouragement. Early on November 20 the "Islammemo" website ran a news story about U.S. forces surrounding a house in Mosul with al Qaeda leaders inside, and posted a picture of Zarqawi along with it, but did not mention him specifically as being in the house. Over at the "Al-Firdaws Jihadist Forums" poster Hajjah Luwayzah speculated that maybe there was more going on than could be reported, that "Islammemo" was hinting without saying that Zarqawi was among the people who were surrounded. The "Elaph" online Arabic news service then picked up the story, speculating that he may have been there, and by then some of the people in the house had blown themselves up, by design or by accident, and the house taken in a vicious gun battle. Conclusion: Zarqawi dead. The Jerusalem Post repeated the "Elaph" story, and from there it vaulted to the rest of the world. I would say that this is a good example of why one should treat reports from that part of the world with caution, but given numerous recent scandals and credibility problems in our own mainstream media it would be wrong of me to make that kind of distinction. Skepticism pays whether the byline is Hajjah Luwayzah or Bob Woodward.

Before I knew much about it, the story made sense to me. Zarqawi is not a popular fellow these days. The triple bombing he sponsored in Amman Jordan November 9 is still haunting him. Last week I noted that Zarqawi had to rush out a second justification for why he made the attack, trying to explain that his targets were not the hotels per se, but the intelligence services that use them. Since then he felt it necessary to issue another, very lengthy clarification, in which his arguments take on a strange pleading quality.

That wedding? We did not mean to target it. If we had wanted to target a wedding we could have hit one with fewer guards around. Anyway, the bomber did not really detonate his bomb in the reception, that is a lie. (Note to Zarqawi: The mother of the bride died last Thursday of her wounds.) He also notes, in curious terrorist logic, "if we wanted to shed blood, God forbid, it would have been easier for us that these martyrs detonated in public places where hundreds of people gather." Like a wedding reception at a hotel? No, he means in a public square, a mall, "or other commercial complexes like Safeway." Safeway? Is he making a cruel pun? Like bombing a Target?

Right, so because his attacks only killed 57 and wounded over 100, they were obviously not intended to be high casualty. Got it. But Zarqawi is having a hard time selling the bombing to Jordanians. A new survey shows al Qaeda with a 90-percent disapproval rating in Jordan, with a like number saying it is a "terrorist organization." I guess sometimes it takes something like multiple hotels blowing up for people to draw these kinds of conclusions, particularly when the attacks are in your own country.

Meanwhile Zarqawi's direct threat to behead King Abdullah has now made him persona non grata within his own family. Seventy-five members of the Al-Khalayilah tribe placed full-page ads in Jordanian newspapers with a letter to the King stating that Ahmad Fadil Nazzal (Zarqawi's real name) was banished. Being a man without a country is one thing, but being a man without a tribe is much worse in that part of the world. The Al-Khalayilah are influential, and when Zarqawi was in jail in Jordan in the 1990s he was able to use family connections to make life easier behind bars. Moreover, tribal connections can stretch well beyond national boundaries. One of the reasons I thought the report of Zarqawi's death was credible at first was that his tribe had forsaken him. Extended tribal ties among groups in al-Anbar Province in Iraq may be what has kept him safe thus far. Now anyone who wants to betray him for the reward money does not have to worry about having Zarqawi's kinfolk coming after him in a blood feud. No, he is out and the expulsion is unequivocal. "Whoever dares to commit such acts in our exalted kingdom is not a Jordanian," the tribal leaders wrote. "He is not related to Jordan, has never drunk its water, or sought its shade, because a Jordanian does not aim his arrow at his own people. We disown him until judgment day." In Zarqawi's case I sure hope that was yesterday.

— James S. Robbins is senior fellow in national-security affairs at the American Foreign Policy Council, a trustee for the Leaders for Liberty Foundation, and an NRO contributor.

Just some weeks ago the Zawahiri-Zarqawi letter was made public. At that time a number of people suggested that it was fake, ostensibly because of style and content anomalies, but the most likely underlying critique was that the U.S. military released it, and the content dovetailed with Administration characterization of the war.

Perhaps the most salient feature of the letter was Zawahiri's criticism of Zarqawi's reckless killing of other Muslims. Now we see once again that very behavior on the part of Zarqawi - this time against other Sunni's rather than Shias. Given the effects of the Amman attack, Zawahiri must be furious.

If Zawahiri did not send that letter I bet he wishes he had, and enclosed something a little more forceful than some Koranic verses.

By the way, Walid Phares has some interesting things to say here:

Jordan's Anti-Terror Rallies

In Jordan there is a Hashemite Revolution brewing, and the King himself is leading it according to Phares.

"In Amman, the masses took advantage of King Abdallah's commitment to security and stability to strike back against al-Qaeda. That's what Zawahiri's letter was warning Zarqawi about: Don't kill Shi’ites randomly; don't kill innocent Muslims; don't deviate from infidel targets (Americans and Jews). But Zarqawi is drunk with blood. He has inhaled too much praise from his radical clerics, in his chat rooms and on callers on al-Jazeera."

Jordan is beefing up the legislation:
http://www.jordantimes.com/tue/homenews/homenews3.htm

The new bill, to be given urgent status on Parliament's agenda when the 110-member Lower House reconvenes early December, will set harsh penalties for anyone who condones or supports acts of terror.

According to Interior Ministry officials, the bill will also grant authorities the power to hold any terror suspect for questioning indefinitely, and to issue penalties to those who seek to endanger the lives and property of citizens, whether inside or outside the country.

Jordan is the first Arab country to join the ranks of Western states in issuing an anti-terrorism bill. Several countries, including the US, Canada, UK and Australia, have drafted their own anti-terrorism legislation, drawing local and international criticism over articles deemed as infringing on civil liberties.

The anti-terrorism acts include measures to identify, prosecute, convict and punish terrorists. They give law enforcement and security agencies in these countries new investigative tools to gather intelligence and prosecute suspected terrorists. Most controversially, they allow for suspected terrorists to be held for long periods without charge.

Security measures have been intensified throughout the Kingdom as part of government efforts to ensure the safety of citizens and to minimise the likelihood of further attacks similar to the triple suicide bombings, the first such attacks on the country. Hotels and main buildings have set up metal detectors and security cameras and increased security personnel.

Muasher said a number of countries have offered to send equipment and resources to help in the fight against terrorism and to protect citizens, adding that the country will take advantage of such offers.

He told reporters that the increased security measures would not cost the country additional financial burdens, noting that some of the measures fall on the shoulders of the private sector, especially hotels.

As part of its measures, the government has reactivated security laws which require that all citizens who rent apartments or offices to non-Jordanians report specific details about their tenants to the nearest police station within 48 hours. Article 14 of the law states that persons who lease apartments, offices or rooms to foreigners must report to the authorities the name, nationality, address and passport numbers of their tenants within 48 hours of the signing of the lease or face penalties.

Muasher said that intensified security measures should not be a short-term action. "We need a long-term strategy that would, through the educational system and the media, eradicate a culture that condones the killing of civilians under any pretext," he said.

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