Posted on 11/21/2005 8:41:11 AM PST by Born Conservative
WASHINGTON - After 11 years in the Senate, Rick Santorum has become one of the most powerful and influential leaders in state and national politics.
He boasts a close relationship with President Bush, he's the No. 3 GOP leader in the Senate, and he is frequently mentioned as a potential candidate for the White House.
An incumbent running for re-election with such credentials normally would scare off most challengers and have few political worries.
Yet low public approval ratings, a well-liked opponent, an increasingly unpopular president mired in an equally unpopular war, an unhappy electorate, public perceptions of ethics lapses by Republicans and Santorum's own miscues have turned next year's Senate election upside down.
Advisers to Santorum concede they are growing increasingly frustrated by his weak support and the tactics of state Treasurer Robert P. Casey Jr., his likely Democratic opponent.
Some analysts and party officials say Santorum's campaign tactics, such as calling for 10 debates a year before the election, are bordering on desperate, particularly for a two-term incumbent.
"I think there is a certain frustration on my level," said John Brabender, Santorum's longtime adviser and media consultant.
"Every day I have to hear Bobby Casey's criticizing without saying what alternative he would offer," he said. "At least be man enough to offer solutions as well or stand on the same stages."
With Santorum trailing Casey by 15 to 20 percentage points in independent polling, Republicans maintain that Pennsylvania voters would be less enamored with Casey, the son of the former governor, if he were less reluctant to tell them his positions on many of the issues that Santorum votes on.
Casey, who last week released an ethics reform plan while rebuking Santorum for his ethics, has criticized Bush and Santorum's proposal for private Social Security accounts and spending cuts for popular programs such as Medicare and Medicaid.
He has unveiled an economic plan and advocated eliminating some of the tax cuts for the wealthiest that Bush is seeking to extend. Casey has said he would like to use that money for programs and relief for the middle class and poor.
He's also voiced concerns about how the Bush administration has managed the Iraq war, which he said he would have supported based on the intelligence that was provided to Congress.
But Santorum and GOP aides have mounted an aggressive campaign that accuses Casey of running a stealth campaign and refusing to say how he would vote on the same issues as Santorum.
Last week, Santorum challenged Casey to 10 debates before the general election. Political experts say that might be unprecedented for an incumbent.
Casey plans to debate Santorum after the primary, according to aides.
"Casey has a significant polling advantage which allows him to act like an incumbent, and incumbents debate few times and minimize exposing themselves to criticism," said G. Terry Madonna, a pollster and political analyst at Franklin & Marshall College.
Sen. Arlen Specter, for example, agreed to only a handful of debates with his primary opponent, Rep. Pat Toomey, after much stalling last year.
"Politics is a game of strategy and tactics, and at the moment, Casey can play a little rope-a-dope and at the moment a year from the election doesn't have to campaign like he's behind or needs name recognition," Madonna said.
He added: "At the moment, Casey's best strategy might be to go to the Caribbean and stay away."
Christopher Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College, said he doesn't fault Santorum for pressing for debates but said only political insiders and journalists are paying attention to the early jousting in what is expected to be the premier race of next year's midterm elections.
"It's by any count incredibly early to be talking about that," he said.
Brabender claims Santorum has always called for debates with his opponents. But it wasn't until former Rep. Ron Klink clinched the Democratic nomination in 2000 that Santorum agreed to debates.
Santorum's record has become both an advantage and his biggest vulnerability in the race with Casey, who has never had to vote on similar legislation in the row offices he's held.
While Santorum can boast a record of fiscal discipline or promotion of conservative causes, Democrats and Casey have found a trove of votes against higher spending for popular programs such as those that benefit veterans and the poor.
Besides trying to create the impression that Casey is hiding, Santorum and his advisers think debating Casey might be their best bet to provide a contrast they believe will showcase the incumbent's strengths.
"They don't want to be seen on the same stage as Rick Santorum because they are concerned they won't have the same command of the issues," Brabender said.
From a political standpoint, Santorum's team and the GOP in PA should plug the fact that if Santorum loses, PA would lose a lot of clout in the Senate. Santorum is likely the next Majority Whip, a very powerful position, and if losing Santorum causes the GOP to lose the majority, the other Senator, Specter, loses his powerful committee chairmanships. That should be a key point that is plugged relentlessly. PA has a lot to lose by voting out Santorum in the way of clout.
Indeed. Just look at how poorly Specter faired in that last election. He lost big.
Santorum doesn't have a "district."
Let not your heart be troubled. Once Casey has to open his mouth and real polls start coming in, I believe it'l be an election like all of Rick's previous: Not easy, but not unwinnable. He's never had an easy campaign.
Agreed, its an off year election, and Eddie and lots of incumbents at the state level are vehemently hated....
This could work both ways, with more republicans/conservatives showing up than dems... but anti-incumbent movement could also hurt Santorum on election day, even though he isn't a state legislature.
Stated voted against reauthorizing a supreme court judge this last election, the first time in nearly 200 years.. and nearly ousted another over the pay raise issue.
>>>Why the gashead voters there have voted (narrowly) for Demo presidential candidates in the last 4 elections is beyond me.<<<
They didn't. The demons "won" Pennsylvania due to massive voter fraud, particularly in Philly.
At the risk of sounding like a Democrat, that is most likely explained in 2 words: VOTE FRAUD. For example, in the 2004 Presidential Election, there were voting booths in Philth-adelphia that had votes ALREADY CAST PRIOR TO THE POLLS OPENING. If you look at a red/blue county by county map of PA, you will see the vast majority of counties in the red.
I, for one, am thoroughly disgusted the Senate.
At least you got a response. I sent an email via his Senate website regarding his vote against he Coburn amendment, and never received a reply (most likely because I disagreed with his vote). I also called his local office last week to voice displeasure about his vote for the Iraq resolution. Still haven't gotten a reply on that as well.
I completely agree. The voter fraud in Philly is widespread and Pittsburgh isn't far behind.
We didn't elect a Dem Senator in 91. John Heinz died and his seat was filled by appointment from Gov. Casey. In the special election that followed Santorum beat Wofford.
SD
SD
So, for Santorum, he's got to get back the Red middle and northern areas that he has lost ground in. So far he's not doing that. Instead, just last week we got emails from him telling us how he's a "compassionate" conservative (and oddly reminiscent of Al Gore, using the term like he himself had thought it up) and how big spending is wonderful as long as its for the "right" causes. Letters like that aren't going to win back the conservative base who are still ticked off at him for a number of reasons. Specter wins by winning the moderate Democrat vote and those conservatives willing to hold their nose and pull the lever. Santorum isn't going to win many moderate Dems and he definitely doesn't have a shot without the conservative base and so far, he's not doing much to generate enthusiasm among them. Also consider....of the executive branch, the House and the Senate, conservatives are probably most dissatisfied with the Senate.....and Santorum is #3 there, so he is probably also get a bit of the blame for the constant selling out of the conservative agenda by the Senate in the name of "consensus and upholding the comity of the chamber" or some such drivel.
So? Politics over Principle. Think Santorum will also win big?
There are more registered Democrats than Republicans however.
I believe at one point that Paul Wellstone had an approval rating of at or around 20% in his first term, but still managed to beat Rudy Boschwitz in a rematch (whom had been expected to reclaim the seat). It all depends on how well Casey does on the campaign trail.
I should've also added that if Santorum does lose, he can really blame his boneheaded move in failure to endorse Pat Toomey over Lex Luthor Specter. A lot of PA Republicans will sit out the election for that incredible blunder and act of apostasy.
...and I think everyone else in the thread also came to the same conclusion. ;-)
Santorum is one of the few people to whom I send campaign donations.
He is one of the few who seems to have retained his principles after being in Wash DC for several years.
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