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To: DrDeb
In today's highly partisan political/social environment, do you actually believe that party affiliation fluctuates wildly?!

Yes I do.

ALL pollsters control for key demographic variables, Gallup included.

Correct. But race, age and gender don't change overnight. Political affiliation can and does.

39 posted on 11/14/2005 5:12:29 PM PST by Alter Kaker (Whatever tears one may shed, in the end one always blows one’s nose.-Heine)
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To: Alter Kaker

"But race, age and gender don't change overnight. Political affiliation can and does"


Based on my experience with polls/statistical analysis, it's my hypothesis that party affiliation correlates as significantly (if not more significantly) with a respondent's perception of this President's JA than any other demographic variable.

[I encourage you to study closely the demographic composition of most MSM polls. Even though pollsters claim they 'weight' for demographic consistency, their 'samples' typically feature a higher percentage of Democrat constituency groups than the general population, e.g., singles, women, minorities, adults under the age of 30, and the unemployed . . . Surprise, surprise, these polls also feature a MUCH higher percentage of Democrats/Democrat-leaning Independents than one would expect given the composition of the electorate in 2000, 2002, and 2004.

If pollsters refuse to weight for party affiliation, then they MUST weight ACCURATELY other demographic variables . . . Quite frankly, it would be easier (and more valid) to simply weight for party affiliation.]


41 posted on 11/14/2005 5:41:33 PM PST by DrDeb
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