I am talking about Bush's current poll numbers [similar to other presidents at this point in their second terms] and the fact that the Republicans seem increasingly in disarray.
There is a steady drumbeat on the other side and an increasing amount of talk about impeachment [for payback]. It is taking a toll.
I do not think Jeb is the person to choose for the next election. And, I am not promoting his son. Only time will tell there.
This is exactly the problem. President Bush is hell bent on not fighting back against the Democrats in any meaningful way. His attempts to rise above it and be the better man are commendable, but ill advised. He's in a knife fight, but acting like he's being mugged. The Democrats aren't playing around. This is about impeachment, and ensuring the war in Iraq ends in failure.
The Democats would like nothing better than an image of U.S. soldiers being airlifted out of Baghdad the same way we left Saigon. They'd also intend to have President Bush either impeached, or to make him resign like Nixon. It'd be 50 years of political ammo to them, and it would launch them back into power.
Sadly, President Bush is unlikely to get his act together in time. Iraq, while still a mess, will sort itself out in time. If he can keep his good name, he will be vindicated by history. If not, then the changes in Iraq will be treated as an unexpectedly good side effect of an otherwise odious conspiracy, the Republicans will be discredited for years, and the entire War on Terror will be jeopardized.
Anyway, they've been screaming 'Bush lied' for so long, it's starting to stick. His adamant refusal to get tough with his critics, and his inability to articulate to the American people why the war in Iraq was important even though no WMDs were found means that the 'Bush lied' thing may become the de facto reality. When you don't defend yourself from bitter accusations, people assume you're guilty. And THAT means doom, folks. So plan accordingly.