[dvwjr]

Don't feel so bad. The poll sample only has 51% Democrats this time. It is just an AP/Ipsos 'pollitorial' after all...

Just to add to the media polling bias, here is the recent history of the "ever-reliable" AP/Ipsos polls (January - November 2005) and their political Party ID sample composition for each poll. The AP/Ipsos polls push Independents to identify with either Republicans or Democrats, only the 'hard-core' remain as self-identified 'Independents'...

This is an mixed ADULTS and Registered Voters poll, not just registered voters. Note the consistant gap in the party ID between Democrats and Republicans, strange given the the 2004 Presidential Election exit polls identified 37% Republicans, 37% Democrats and 26% Independents among the voting American public. The Republicans have achieved voter self-indentification parity with the Democrats for the first time since the late 1920s.

This series of AP/Ipsos poll result on Presidential job approval and the American public views on the 'direction of the country' was as always based on a skewed demographic sample that averages 41% Republican, 49% Democrat and 10% Independent composition. I think that when the AP poll fails to get the results they desire, they 'play' with both the registered voters composition and vary the un-registered voter portion of the poll sample. Since the Registered voter portion of the poll averages around 78% and the 'breathing' voter averages around 22% you can see they have quite a bit of "statistical slack" to play with to get the results they require...

Presidential Approval Ratings
AP/Ipsos monthly Polls
(n~1,000 ± 3.1%)

	9-Nov	2-Nov	5-Oct	16-Sep	6-Sep	August	July	June	May	April	March	February	January
Republicans	40%	40%	40%	41%	42%	39%	42%	40%	42%	41%	39%	39%	43%
Democrats	51%	49%	48%	49%	48%	48%	51%	50%	49%	48%	47%	52%	49%
Independents	9%	11%	12%	10%	10%	13%	7%	10%	9%	11%	14%	9%	8%
Total:	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Registered	78%	80%	78%	77%	76%	79%	77%	80%	79%	82%	78%	76%	80%
Breathing	22%	20%	22%	23%	24%	21%	23%	20%	21%	18%	22%	24%	20%
Total:	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Approve	37%	37%	39%	40%	39%	42%	42%	43%	47%	44%	48%	45%	49%
Disapprove	61%	59%	58%	57%	59%	55%	56%	55%	51%	54%	50%	54%	49%
Total:	98%	96%	97%	97%	98%	97%	98%	98%	98%	98%	98%	99%	98%

Note: The AP/Ipsos polls are published in PDF format and become unavailable after one month. You must be a 'premium' member to access those PDF files on their web site. No consistant links are provided for that reason.

Source: AP-Ipsos Poll, November 7-9, 2005 Project #81-5139-67

Hope this helps,

dvwjr

[DrDeb]

EXCELLENT ANALYSIS per usual.


In 2003, the Associated Press 'purchased' the Ipsos Reid/Cook Political Report so that it could 'manufacture' the polling data necessary to advance the leftist political agenda.

Any polling organization that routinely oversamples Democrats by double digits (at 50% and above no less) is beyond incompetent . . . actually, FRAUDULENT would seem to be a more accurate descriptor!


FYI: RASMUSSEN has put the President's JA rating at 44% for the last 2 days -- the HIGHEST in almost a month. More importantly, Rasmussen notes that the President's JA among veterans is over 60% (higher among those who have served/continue to serve in the all voluteer force!)!!