Posted on 11/11/2005 10:55:54 AM PST by surely_you_jest
New data released yesterday show that in the past year, home sales in the Washington region have declined sharply, the inventory of unsold homes is up significantly, and prices have flattened and, in some cases, fallen.
The trend is most striking in Northern Virginia, where most of the region's growth has occurred, but it is evident almost everywhere.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
pop,poP,pOP,POP!.....and, down they go.
Deals closing today were agreed to in early September and October. Real Estate slows down this time of year.
It is going to get alot worse...
Then, about 8 months out, look for the new home market (with the Katrina surgharge gone) to begin to grow again.
I disagree. It will get a lot better after Christmas, esp. for existing homes.
Time will tell. On the central FL Gulf Coast, materials prices began an incredible run-up about 18 months ago, which has continued ubabated since that time.
I really can't imagine the market in DC having a difficult time
on my street when i am in DC, there are so many 'for sale' signs on houses that are purely speculative (the owner is just slapping a sign on to wait for a tempting enough offer)
it kinda seems like every half-wit thinks that they can sell their house to finance an early retirement!!
these people playing (speculating) are the reason DC will probably have a slow time for a while (i imagine fall and winter will be slower than usual) but with the fed govt and sheer magnitude of employers, i completely agree with the line in the article that says that DC is the most insulated market in the country.
what do u guys think about DC's market?
Amazing....for decades the housing market season ran from late February through late September. October through January were seen as the "buyers market" time of the year. Now if sales aren't going through the roof 12 out of 12....it's the end of times.
good point about the increase in the cost of raw materials!
man, i graduated college 2 yrs ago, and i feel like i already forgot everything in my econ degree!!
I moved into, and out of, the Washington, DC housing market several times over about a 20 year period. I've seen it stall, and plateau out before, and saw prices drop once - in late '90, early '91. But some of the prices being quoted in the WaPo article, in neighborhoods with which I am familiar, are actually unhinged from reality.
I believe significant price declines in the metro DC market are not only possible, but extremely likely going forward. Fortunately, I am not in that market at the moment. As for other markets, who knows?
Ping.
ubabated = unabated. Sheesh.
Absolutely. I remember that seasonality - you could set your, uh, calendar by it. No more. Which is, I would think, additional indirect evidence of the overheated nature of that particular RE market.
The problem in DC is the problem elsewhere...the cost of housing has far, far outpaced salaries. And the people buying these ridiculously priced houses today with I/O and other exotic loans are going to get killed when their rate jumps in a couple of years.
Real estate always slows in the last quarter, but higher interest rates should be flatten the market somewhat. The frantic pace that we experienced the past few years could not be expected to last forever. I haven't seen much dropping in price in this area, except maybe in homes that were greatly over priced.
Wow, we actually made it to Friday THIS week before one of these articles came out.
"More than twice as many homes were available for sale in October as in the same month one year ago, 7,122 homes, compared with 3,254, and sales are off 28 percent. In the District, listings are up 62 percent and sales are down 28 percent. In Montgomery County, listings are up 49 percent and sales are down 8 percent."
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Say what you want, but these stats don't lie. Sellers are flooding the market, trying to get out before the inevitable fall comes. And, to be honest, it is not irrational to think that DC homes could lose 10-15% of their value by Spring 2006.
Lynn Edmonds and his wife, Sebnem, could barely wait to sign on the dotted line back in May when they committed themselves to pay $796,000 for a three-floor townhouse under construction in Alexandria's Cameron Station.But since May, the sales prices for the development have fallen -- and units like the one the Edmonds bought are now being sold for $699,900. The Edmonds are facing the prospect of a $100,000 loss in value before they even walk through the front door.
That is a 12.5% loss in one month! And it will get much worse.
Where are all the FR naysayers today? Come out, come out, wherever you are!
Average home prices drop 8-12% this time of year. And increase 9-13% in the spring. If you are a seller, dont panic...or actually, go ahead and panic like people did in 2002. As people drop their homes for the lowest bidder from sheer terror, they will slash inventories, which will lead to one further push up in April, as mortage rates fall below 6% once again.
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