I don't think many people would remember Arnold's failed ballot measures one year from now...
Who knows what will happen between now and November 2006?
People were not sure that Pete Wilson would get reelected at the start of 1994...He got reelected by a comfortable margin in Nov. 1994.
True to some degree re: voters memories, but now that he needs to put the brakes on the spending, he may not be able to and the thought of having to raise taxes is not going to endear him very well to those who sat this one out and too many who did vote as well.