If the numbers in the table above were correct, then the middle three quintiles would lose big under the FairTax.
However, those numbers are not correct. They are too simplistic in their assumptions. If you look at the CBO link you provided, you will find the CBO definition of Income:
"Measuring Income This analysis focuses on adjusted pretax comprehensive household income. That measure includes all cash income (both taxable and tax-exempt), taxes paid by businesses (which are imputed to individuals, as noted above), employee contributions to 401(k) retirement plans, and the value of income received in kind from various sources (including employer-paid health insurance premiums, Medicare and Medicaid benefits, and food stamps, among others). The calculations use the Census Bureau's fungible value measure to determine the cash equivalent of in-kind government transfers. "
So not all of the figure you provided as "Gross Income" is actually spendable income. For the elderly, you would need to subtract the fungible value of the Medicare and Medicaid benefits. The value of those cannot be "spent" subject to FairTax, so your Total Tax Inclusive Spending and FairTax Paid figures are all too high.
According to sources like this http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd/tbi2.pdf the Medicare Expenditures alone are over $200B. Divided by 40M elderly, that would mean $5,K each. Because your chart assumes all households contain two elderly, $10,000 of each of the income listed in your chart is not money-income. But the "Effective Tax Rate" for the current Income+Payroll+Corporate tax system is a percentage of this as though it were in fact spendable cash.
Removing just $10,000 from each "Total Spending" would change your Table a bit. Here is your table with just a $10,000 adjustment to FairTaxable spending:
Elderly Childless Households - 2002
|
|
|
Gross
Income
|
Effective
Income +
Payroll +
Corporate
Income
Tax Rate
|
Total
Tax Inclusive
Spending
(including
$4,076 FCA)
|
Gross
FairTax
Paid
|
Net
FairTax
Paid
(Gross - FCA)
|
Effective
FairTax
Rate
|
Increase/
Decrease in
Tax Burden
|
| Lowest Quintile |
$ 11,300
|
1.0%
|
$5,376
|
$1,236
|
$(2,840)
|
-25.1%
|
-2410%
|
| Second Quintile |
$ 26,400
|
2.5%
|
$20,476
|
$4,709
|
$633
|
2.4%
|
-4%
|
| Middle Quintile |
$ 42,500
|
5.3%
|
$36,576
|
$8,412
|
$4,336
|
10.2%
|
92.5%
|
| Fourth Quintile |
$ 64,700
|
10.4%
|
$58,776
|
$13,518
|
$9,442
|
14.6%
|
40.4%
|
| Highest Quintile |
$173,600
|
22.8%
|
$167,676
|
$38,565
|
$34,489
|
19.9%
|
-12.7%
|
| All |
$ 55,200
|
14.6%
|
$49,276
|
$11,333
|
$7,257
|
13.1%
|
-10.6%
|
To really create an accurate chart, we would need the quintiles with another column for "Money Income". So that we weren't counting Medicare, housing assistance, Medicaid, etc. as though FairTax would be paid on those "in-kind" benefits.
Using just the adjustment for the Medicare benefits, we can see the only tax burden increase is on the middle and fourth quintiles. We would still need to make adjustments for actual spending that would not be FairTaxable -- used vehicles, educational expenses, travel outside the US -- to get a true picture.
Are you trying to suggest that, apart from Medicare and Medicaid expenditures, the lowest quintile elderly households only currently have $1,300 a year in income?
Be reasonable. You've obviously made an erroneous assumption.