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Starting to see attention turning to where this must have originated, as well as where it is likely to go, so I'll throw my two cents in here.
Clearly planned, probably start to finish, smells like Ayman Zawahiri to me.
Can AQ take and hold France? Yes, if the French let them, which the French will probably not overtly do.
Can AQ demonstrate their ability to cause a wishy-washy western "ally" to cave to their demands, ala Spain?
Yes.
Will a French cave allow AQ and Co. greater latitude operating on the continent?
Maybe some, but they've accomplished similar objectives in Spain already, so the net difference of a behind the scenes paradigm shift in Paris won't change the balance of the scales much.
Obviously an overt takeover would be very different, but it is inconcievable that French pride would allow that.
When the terrorists think the French have squirmed, groveled, and acceeded to enough demands to underscore AQ's point, the riots will stop, for now.
If the terrorists get cold feet, (no fear of death, fear of maneuver that threatens political gains made in France to date), they will probably call it a day and settle for what they've achieved so far.
Is there a connection with the Australian terror plot recently thwarted? Well, there would have been, had it not been thwarted.
Terrorism is primarily a political exercise. You can make a case that AQ would presumably lower their standards until they could succeed in some kind, any kind of attack inside the US as follow-up to 9/11, but while I'm not about to let my guard down, there's little strategic gain in a silly looking inconsequential attack here in the great Satan, when our allies are still in good shape and easier pickings.
That makes the French riots one of three things in AQ's overall strategy.
1. More Spain, more of a threat to our allies, "do it our way or we'll hose you like we did France".
2. Admission that they cannot achieve the level of attack they wish to in the US. Don't laugh, some of these guys at the top level are reasonably sharp, but the grunts aren't exactly rocket scientists, and they fail on a regular basis.
Case in point, shoe dufus Richard Reid.
Still, probably not an admission that they can't, just that they haven't yet. They also labor under some assumptions that raise the bar for them. I can think of ways to put America on its knees, but I live here, and I don't care about many of the things terrorists care about, like sheer raw terror for instance.
I see a bigger picture, I would concentrate on real military advantage, but they have yet to see things my way, and I don't intend to help them along.
3. A prelude, several elements in conjunction, riots in France, something ugly in Germany, something else in Japan perhaps, Saudi and Pakistan are always easy prey, and who knows, maybe they've sucked it up enough to take another shot at the big prize. Stay tuned.
An interesting aside....The Europeans doing our current dirty work...leaning on Iran...just...permitted...the UN to pass a resolution Tehran really isn't too happy about.
Some say that Sayed Bin Laden is running the show on the day to day basis now, from a Pasdaran camp about 60 km from Tehran, a place called Lavizan. Some may remember this location from stories on a different subject. Sat imagery showing the Iranians bulldozing all the topsoils off the WMD facilities there and replacing it with clean, fresh, ucontaminated dirt instead.
So if Osama really has retired, and the Iranians really are upset over UN sanctions looming on the horizon, and they blame Europe, and they already popped the London subways, France now makes even more sense, both in view of retired Chairman of the Board Bin Laden, and the Taliban in control of the country where the headquar....wait...not Taliban, the new folks running the country AQ calls home now. Honest mistake, I swear.
;-)
One more point of interest, France doesn't seem to be the only place "Islam versus Other" riots are springing up.
Little brou-ha-ha in western Iran this week too.
Is it possible that porous borders are porous in two directions?
Iran has a lot of borders.