"The best hope may be that the U.S. succeeds in its efforts to transform the Middle East to the point that Muslims perceive themselves as having a stake in the democratic project (as American blacks did) and in the global economy."
This, I gotta disagree with. They don't want a "stake" - they want total control and total domination and nothing less, IMHO.
Islam doesn't want a "voice." Islam doesn't adhere to the idea of equality before the law. Islam seeks to destroy and convert.
The only short-term hope is secularization and placating them with consumerism. Democratization is the first step. Long term, the best hope is to Christianize them. But Mohammedanism in notoriously impervious to Christian missionary efforts.