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To: dervish

I am right now in Connecticut, but I have family in Bondy and Paris.

I would say that Villepin has never been dramatically popular, but that he has gained tremendous stature as Prime Minister, which he did not have before as the old King's favorite courtier. Now, he has power, and he has shown himself capable of using it rather wisely.

Sarkozy is a good man, but he does not really have a fully thought out plan for dealing with the Islamists. He knows that there needs to be a crackdown, and so he cracks down, but he does not gauge the reaction and gets massive protests and problems...for which he has no particular solution other than to gut it out. He will not be permitted to clear the streets "with a whiff of grapeshot", so to speak. And so he is merely entrenching enemies and problems which he does not have the wherewithal to fix.

The French economy could be better, but let's keep things realistic. The economy is not growing as fast as America's, but it is nevertheless expected to grow. As oil prices decline, this will further help. Unemployment is always high. This is a perennial problem for which Villepin is not responsible. His alleviating some of the strictness of the 35 hours will probably help at the margins, and he gets some credit for that. Taxes are high, but stagnant.

No choice but to reform?
Oh no. He can stand pat and wait for developments. Things are slowly blundering forward. The country is neither happy nor in ruins. Unemployment is as high as ever, but not higher. He has no real opponents of stature on the left.

On the right, the nationalists are the ones to watch. The Islamist issue has perplexed France for a long time, and the Front National garnered 20% of the vote in election after election. They are run by discredited personalities.

I cannot fail to observe that Philippe de Villiers has charisma. It is simply true. He is the sort of politician the French like to look at and hear. He was a vocal part of the winning side on the European Constitution, and this week of fiery protests in St. Denis and Clichy is going to have ripple effects throughout France.


70 posted on 11/02/2005 4:58:01 PM PST by Vicomte13 (Et alors?)
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To: Vicomte13

Thanks for your analysis.


89 posted on 11/02/2005 9:48:16 PM PST by dervish (no excuses)
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