A Republican does not need to "take" Pittsburgh or Philadelphia to win state-wide. They only need to cut into the Democrat margin of victory. The other factor going for Swann is the fact that he would be the first major party black candidate for state-wide office. That fact alone will cut into Rendell's margin, especially in Philly. Swann will easily take the swing suburbs around Pittsburgh where he is a living legend, well known and respected, and where Rendell lacks automatic support even among the hard-line union Democrats. Rendell is seen as another Philly machine pol, too liberal on guns and abortion, and not especially good for the Western part of the state.
If Swann can stump the state, especially Philadelphia, with messages as strong and coherent as the above while capitalizing on the outrage over pay raises, and state government in general, Fast Eddie is history.
But first, Swann needs to win the Republican nomination which might be a problem with the party's ossified "old boy" network usually favoring some long time loyal hack who's paid his dues. If he gets the nomination, the Democrats will begin playing nasty as hell like they are with Steele in Maryland. A high-profile black Republican is their worst nightmare and they will do anything to stop it.
Should be an interesting year.
It is true enough that to win in Pa. you only have to cut sufficiently into the Pittsburg and Philly margins. My original point was more that, given the fanatical turnout and large margin going to Democrats in Philly in 2004, Swann or Scranton will have their work cut out for them in 2006 as will Santorum (especially considering that he continues to run left....he's got to motivate the base to come out and vote for him, not try to run like Specter.)